=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=None
|storemode=property
|title=Sustainable Urban Development Planner for Climate Change Adaptation (SUDPLAN)
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-679/paper3.pdf
|volume=Vol-679
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/enviroinfo/GidhagenDS0KH10
}}
==Sustainable Urban Development Planner for Climate Change Adaptation (SUDPLAN)==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-679/paper3.pdf
Sustainable Urban Development Planner
for Climate Change Adaptation (SUDPLAN)
Lars Gidhagen1,1, Ralf Denzer2, Sascha Schlobinski2,
Frank Michel3, Peter Kutschera4 and Denis Havlik4
1
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden
2
cismet GmbH, Altenkesseler Str. 17, 66115 Saarbrücken, Germany
3
Deutsches Forschungszentrum fuer Kuenstliche Intelligenz GmbH, Trippstadter Strasse,
67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany
4
Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, 2444 Seibersdorf, Austria
Abstract. SUDPLAN is an EU FP7 project combining IT and environmental
knowhow in a novel way, bringing an easy-to-use, web-based decision support
system for urban climate services. It will allow city planners to take climate
change and its impact on the urban environment into account in the urban
planning process. The main components of the SUDPLAN product are the
Scenario Management System, the Common Services and the four pilot
applications. This presentation describes the goals of the project, the consortium
and the basic structure of the Scenario Management system and the Common
Services. The usefulness of the system will be demonstrated in four pilot cities,
but whatever European city can easily make use of the SUDPLAN Common
Services offered.
Keywords: Scenario management, decision support, visualization, climate
change, urban environment, SISE, SEIS
1 Introduction
SUDPLAN is an EU FP7 project under the Information Communication
Technology programme (ICT-2009-6.4), running 2010-2012. The project responds to
the call’s target “ICT for a better adaptation to climate change” which asks for
solutions that combine advanced environmental modelling and visualization, in
support to EU initiatives like The ‘Shared Environmental Information System’ (SEIS)
and The ‘Single Information Space in Europe for the Environment’ (SISE).
1 Corresponding author: lars.gidhagen@smhi.se
1.1 Project goals
The main objective of SUDPLAN is to develop an easy-to-use, web-based,
planning, prediction, decision support and training tool for urban climate services.
The tool is to be based on a ‘what-if’ scenario execution environment. SUDPLAN
visualization of future scenarios will allow city planners to take climate change into
account in the urban planning process, thereby contributing to limit the effects of
climate change on health, comfort, safety and quality of life.
SUDPLAN shall provide local information and a quality service to effectively
support urban planners and decision makers in urban areas all over Europe in the
areas of intense rainfall events, drought and flood risks, and severe air pollution
episodes, affecting urban infrastructure and population under the influence of a
changed climate. This goal will be achieved through:
• the design and implementation of a Scenario Management System, an
execution, visualization, documentation and training environment for scientific
users, city planners and managers. This environment will seamlessly blend in
existing and emerging distributed infrastructures for spatial data (SISE, SEIS)
• the design and implementation of so-called Common Services to deliver the
necessary data to quantify, report and visualize the future risks for droughts,
flooding, extreme rainfall intensities and high air pollution events over urban
areas, usable throughout Europe, but at the local urban scale.
• validating SUDPLAN results in four independent pilot applications: the City of
Stockholm in Sweden, the City of Wuppertal in Germany, the City of Linz in
Austria and the Prague region in the Czech Republic.
• ensuring that the SUDPLAN services are generic enough to be easily applicable
to other European sites.
1.2 SUDPLAN consortium
The different IT aspects of the SUDPLAN project will be covered by the four
partners cismet (Germany), AIT (Austria), DFKI (Germany) and Apertum (Sweden).
The environmental know-how will be taken care of by the two partners SMHI
(Sweden) and TU Graz (Austria). Another three partners, representing environmental
authorities and expertise, will ensure the validation and usefulness of the SUDPLAN
tools: CENIA (Czech Republic), SULVF (Stockholm, Sweden) and Wuppertal
municipality (Germany).
2 SUDPLAN main components
The main system components are shown in Fig. 1. The web-based Scenario
Management System (SMS) includes the client and the user interface of SUDPLAN.
The Common Services (CS) provides climate information and environmental
modelling tools. The SUDPLAN infrastructure includes all city-specific models,
sensors and databases. All SUDPLAN pilot cities have defined their own unique
planning applications, managed together with Common Services through the Scenario
Management System.
Fig. 1 Overview of SUDPLAN components
2.1 Scenario Management System
The Scenario Management System (SMS) will be a highly interactive, highly
3D/4D graphics-based decision support environment, which explores existing
resources, in particular the 3D landscape and 3D models of phenomena. In this
system, users are capable to define, manage, execute and explore different decisions
and to simulate decision scenarios. Users are supported in the visualization,
comparison and documentation of different decisions, and can use the system for
training.
The SMS will contain the following major components (fig. 2):
a) a tentatively called “orchestrator” component, which allows to define
different what-if decision scenarios, their data and sensor sources, the
models involved and the work flow associated with the scenario
b) a tentatively called “executor” component, which allows to execute (i.e.
compute) different decisions (while the user waits, or in the background), to
compare and document results
c) a geo visualization component which links with existing SDI infrastructures
(i.e. the existing spatial city information)
d) an advanced 3D / 4D visualization component for the visualization and
animation of 3D results and predictions, in particular using the 3D landscape
e) a scenario and persistence manager which keeps an inventory of scenarios,
data sources and results which supports results evaluation and reporting
f) an access-control layer to existing services (including models), data sources,
catalogues and sensors.
Scenario management environment
3D / 4D geo scenario
visualisation visualisation manager
Scenario inventory
orchestrator executor persistence
manager
access control
Catalogs Access
Sensor services
services
Fig. 2 Components inside the Scenario Management System
The functionality of the system includes (not including tools for system
managers): discovery of resources available in the SUDPLAN scenario inventory
(data, models, published scenarios etc.), integration support for data sources, sensors
and models, support to set boundary conditions of models, scenario workflow
management, scenario management repository support, post processing of results,
advanced visualization capabilities. These functionalities will be available in a highly
interactive adaptive “work bench”.
2.2 Common Services
The Common Services (CS) task is to provide environmental information for
European cities under present and future climate scenarios. A climate scenario means
the resulting climate evolution over time, as simulated by a General Circulation
Model (GCM), covering the globe and forced by a certain IPCC emission scenario.
The spatial resolution is typically 200-300 km. Due to the uncertainties in climate
modelling, SUDPLAN will provide various climate scenarios so that the planning can
be based on an ensemble of different future scenarios.
A global climate scenario result may be downscaled to a higher spatial resolution,
typically 25-50 km, by an Regional Climate Model (RCM). The regional downscaling
in SUDPLAN will, at least initially, be performed by SMHI's RCM (named RCA)
and will generate climate scenarios at 44 or 22 km resolution over Europe. As
indicated in Fig. 3, the production of those European scale climate scenarios is an
activity outside SUDPLAN.
Climate input CS database CS models Local models
Regionally Precalculated Urban downscaling of Pilot defined
downscaled European data of - intense rainfall modelling
climate scenarios - intense rainfall - hydrological data
over Europe - hydrological data - air quality
- air quality
SMHI’s RCA model CS models over Europe CS models over cities City-specific models
(at least in first phase) executed by SMHI executed by end-users executed by end-users
Input from GCMs RCA model output Precalculated CS Europe CS downscaling
(global models) used as input results used as input results used as input
External projects Common Services (CS) SUDPLAN pilot
applications
Fig. 3 Overview of the SUDPLAN modelling of environmental factors, going
from the European scale (left) to the urban and eventually finer scale (right).
SUDPLAN involves the Common Services modelling as well as the specific
modelling required by different pilot cities.
Regionally downscaled climate scenarios are today freely available through a
number of project efforts, including EU FP6 ENSEMBLES project. For urban
planning purposes, e.g. to give input to local models, the use of the climate scenario
information freely available is coupled to some difficulties. The temporal and spatial
resolution of the climate scenario information may not be adequate for the urban
scale, as is often the case for short-term precipitation intensities that require 30 min or
finer temporal resolution. Regional climate models also have a spatial scale that is too
large for estimating intensive precipitation events. SUDPLAN Common Services will
involve methods to bridge this scale gap of precipitation variability [1].
In order to transfer the regionally downscaled climate scenarios to other
environmental factors of interest in urban planning, like river runoff, soil moisture
and air quality, there is a need for complementary effect modelling. Common
Services will bridge also this gap by offering model output from a hydrological model
and a chemistry-transport model (CTM) forced by the climate scenarios for Europe.
Again there is a need for higher spatial and temporal resolution. SUDPLAN will
ensure that climate scenario information will be downscaled to become adequate for
urban applications where intensive rainfall, river runoff and air quality are
environmental factors of interest.
2.2.1 Climate scenarios
SUDPLAN will use available climate scenarios according to IPCC directed
activities preparing for AR42 and currently for AR52 (through the CMIP53
coordinated model inter-comparison). The results of CMIP5 will be available in the
2 IPCCs Assessment Report no. 4, published in 2007 and no. 5, scheduled for 2014.
3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is a coordinated effort by the
climate modeling community to validate their General Circulation Models (GCMs) and
provide best possible estimates of future climate change to AR5.
end of 2010 or beginning of 2011, so for the first SUDPLAN version the AR4
scenarios will be used.
SUDPLAN will use regionally downscaled (over Europe) results from some well
reputed global models. Initially the Common Services will be based on the following
climate scenarios downscaled by SMHI’s RCA3 model [2,3,4]:
• ECHAM5 [5] using A1B emission scenario [6]
• HADCM3 [7] using A1B emission scenario [6]
Later SUDPLAN versions will allow the use of other model results, both on the
global and the regional (European) scale.
2.2.2 Downscaling of intense rainfall
Different methods will be used, depending on the type of input data selected by the
end-user. The first alternative is input of an Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curve
and the second a high temporal resolution time-series of precipitation.
The IDF curve downscaling is based on extreme value analysis of annual rainfall
maxima of different durations using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)
distribution, as outlined in e.g. [8]. For each selected scenario, this analysis is applied
to one reference and one future, user-specified 30-year time-series of 30-min values
from the five RCM model grid points surrounding the desired location. This means
that the end-user inputs an historical IDF curve and will receive as output an IDF
curve for a future climate scenario.
Time-series downscaling is based on the version of the general Delta Change (DC)
method described in [1]. Essentially, short-term precipitation from climate scenarios
are analyzed in order to estimate future changes associated with different intensity
levels. As in the case of IDF downscaling, the analysis is applied to one reference and
one future 30-year time-series of 30-min values. The end-user inputs the reference
(historical) time-series and Common Services will give back a time-series
representing the conditions of the selected future climate scenario.
Common Services will also offer a possibility to simulate the passage of a
rainstorm over an urban catchment, generating multiple and consistent time-series in
selected locations. The generator is based on the concept of a design storm, i.e. an
idealized time-series of rainfall intensity during an intense event. In the generator,
such a design storm is first defined for the centre of the rainstorm. Then transfer
functions are used to create consistent design storms in selected surrounding
locations. This transfer includes time lagging and a reduction of the peak intensity.
The transfer functions should be designed to match the typical shape and extension of
intense rainstorms, as found empirically (e.g. in [9]). For climate change impact
assessments, the peak intensity will be changed to reflect the estimated future
properties of intense rainfall. The Storm Generator simulation requires an IDF
analysis as described above.
2.2.3 Hydrological downscaling
The concept used is to go from the CS database of pre-calculated hydrological data
on the European scale, followed by an end-user executed downscaling where the local
information is improved through re-calibration and re-running the CS hydrological
model HYPE with improved local input. The local input can be river runoff data as
well as improved land-use and watershed information.
The HYPE model [10] is a semi-distributed processed-based hydrological model
for small-scale and large-scale assessments of water resources and water quality. In
the model, the landscape is divided into classes according to soil type, land-use and
altitude. The soil may be divided into up to three layers, each with individual
computations of soil wetness and nutrient processes The model simulates water flows,
and flow and turnover of nitrogen and phosphorus. Nutrients follow the same
pathways as water in the model: surface runoff, macropore flow, tile drainage and
groundwater outflow from the individual soil layers. Rivers and lakes are described
separately with routines for turnover of nutrients in each environment. Model
coefficients are global, or related to soil type or land-use. Internal model components
are checked using corresponding observations from different sites. The model code is
structured so that the model can easily be applied with high resolution over large
model domains, which is also facilitated by linking coefficients to physical
characteristics and the multi-basin calibration procedure.
The pan-European hydrological database in Common Services is generated by the
water part of the HYPE model, applied in a multi-basin approach to Europe (E-
HYPE). Model output cover most of the European continent, from the British Isles to
the Ural Mountains, and from Norway to the Mediterranean Sea. This achievement
was possible thanks to new global databases, which are handled in a specially
designed system of methods for automatic generation of model input data [11]. The
term multi-basin refers to a model calibrated homogenously over several entire river
basins.. The pan-European model has at present a median sub basin resolution of 120
km2, but incorporation of local observations can give a very good fit in both gauged
and ungauged basins for national datasets with much higher resolution (median 18
km2 for Sweden [12]).
In the Common Services tool, the local user can select basins of interest from the
pan-European model and may include further monitored time-series of water
discharge. It will then be possible to run a simple automatic calibration routine for this
domain to improve the multi-basin scale calibration. This will improve the model
performance for present conditions. The user can then select climate scenarios using a
relevant down-scaling technique (see above) to fit with the hydrological modelling on
a very local level, also including storm-flow events. The user can then run the model
in the new SUDPLAN interface, which uses the results to visualize the results of
future risks of drought and floods in the selected basins. The monitored data inserted
into the model by the local users will then be used in an annual re-calibration of the
entire continent [12], which will improve the overall performance of the pan-
European multi-basin model. Hence, more users will reveal more monitored data and
the pan-European model will continuously improve in the long term
2.2.4 Air Quality downscaling
Also here the concept used is to go from the CS database of pre-calculated air
quality data on the European scale, followed by an end-user executed downscaling
where the local end-user executes the CS Chemical Transport Model over a specific
city, with improved emission input (see Fig. 2).
The CS air quality model is named MATCH, an Eulerian off-line chemistry-
transport model developed at SMHI. A comprehensive description of the model
structure, boundary layer parameterization and advection scheme etc. is given in [13].
The photochemical scheme, based on [14] contains around 70 chemical species and
around 130 chemical reactions. It is detailed in [15] which also includes an evaluation
of the isoprene chemistry. MATCH’s ability to realistically simulate air quality over
Europe is discussed in a number of studies e.g. [16,17,18,19,20].
At least during the first phase of SUDPLAN, MATCH will be driven by climate
scenarios from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA. A number of such
applications have been published [21,22,23,24]
The first set of European air quality simulations will utilize one of the
representative concentration pathways [25] to describe the evolution of tracer
emission over the European continent during the present century. For the urban
downscaling in pilot cities, locally provided emissions data will be used.
2.2.5 Communication services supporting Common Services
The communication layer between the clients (operating the Scenario Management
System web interface) and the Common Services must be able to deal with both
model execution as well as data transfer in both directions. SUDPLAN has the goal to
use standardized OGC services, this to assure that new models – both in Common
Services and in local city pilot applications - will be easy to connect to the core of
SUDPLAN, the SMS system. The Sensor Planning Service (SPS) will be the first
option for model execution in SUDPLAN. Access to the results requires a generic
interface in order to enable clients (SMS) to access results in a unified way. For this
purpose two standardized web service interfaces have been positively evaluated.
Depending on the data type and organisation the Sensor Observation Service (SOS)
and Web Coverage Service (WCS) shall be used. WCS, alternatively also Web
Feature Service (WFS) and Web Map Service (WMS), will be used where results
(grid, polygons, layers) shall be presented on a map.
3 Pilot specific applications
The usefulness of SUDPLAN tools will be demonstrated in four pilots. Stockholm
will focus on air quality, where Common Services will allow the assessment of
different city projections, under different climate scenarios. The other contribution
will be the improved visualization possibilities of combined high resolution 3D and
street canyon model output.
In Wuppertal storm water flooding is already a major problem, this due to the
city’s location in the steep, narrow and long valley of the Wupper river. SUDPLAN
will help to assess both the damages that may be caused by flooding and the
effectiveness of different planning options, thus providing decision support to the
planners. Moreover the Scenario Management System will provide the means to
visualize the results in advanced 2D-, 3D- and 4D-representations – as a basis for
discussions with the concerned property owners.
The Linz pilot will develop planning tools for dimensioning of water sewer system,
to mitigate future spill behaviour of combined sewer overflows (CSO). Also here
storm water flooding is the problem, as hydraulic limitations of the waste water
treatment plants will imply a discharge of polluted waters, either directly into the
Danube river or to reservoirs for temporal storage. Through the use of a novel sensor
network and model simulations, these combined sewer overflows and the
sedimentation efficiency of the treatment plants will be assessed. Projections into the
future will be possible through the Common Services precipitation scenarios.
The Czech pilot focuses the Prague region and how observed migration patterns
correlate to environmental pressures. The hypothesis to be evaluated with the
SUDPLAN tool is that a deteriorated air quality contributes significantly to an
increased migration from the city to suburbs or adjacent areas. This is consequential
because due to climate change an even more decreased environmental quality can be
expected, with consequences on how the Prague population will live, commute and
work in the future.
4 Conclusions
The SUDPLAN project is expected to generate results for the ICT and the
environmental scientific communities, as well as for end-users represented by city
planners.
The SUDPLAN communication and service infrastructure will be rely on standards
and specifications of OGC. The web-based scenario management environment
providing advanced modelling services to support the planning and decision making
process has the ambition to be compliant with existing infrastructures supporting the
emerging SISE (Single Information Space in Europe for the Environment).
SUDPLAN Common Services will provide a number of climate scenarios from global
climate models, downscaled first to the regional (Europe) scale and further
downscaled to the urban scale. The downscaling will provide “best possible”
estimates of future precipitation, temperature, hydrological and air quality.
The end-users of the SUDPLAN services are city planners who can either work
directly in the system or they can benefit from SUDPLAN tools through different
kinds of scientific users – IT, environmental modellers, statisticians etc. Through the
use of SUDPLAN results end-users will be able to evaluate risk hazards of storm
water local runoff, river flooding and elevated air pollution levels for planned or
existing urban areas subject to a changing climate.
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