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      <title-group>
        <article-title>Fuzzy Predicting Models in \Structure { Property" Problem</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Eugeny Prokhorov</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Ludmila Ponomareva</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Eugeny Permyakov</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Mikhail Kumskov</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Computational Mathematics, Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics, Lomonosov Moscow State University</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>A new approach for analyzing the moleculedescriptor matrix for the QSAR problem (Quantitative StructureActivity Relationship) based on a fuzzy cluster structure of the learning sample is presented. The ways for generating fast rules for refusing prediction and searching the spikes in the learning sample are described. For this purpose, a special space of descriptors, simple for calculation, is introduced. The ways for optimizing the discriminant function according to fuzzy clustering parameters are examined. Highly predictive models based on the presented approach have been generated. The models are compared, and the e ciency of the described methods is revealed.</p>
      </abstract>
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    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>The solution of the QSAR problem consists of two stages: the stage of
description and the stage of discriminant function generation [3]. Very often the learning
sample is separated into clusters, and each cluster is processed separately. In fact
the cluster analysis of the learning sample determines the discriminant function
generation. The method presented makes it possible to optimize the discriminant
function with respect to clustering parameters. For screening a large database
of compounds, it is extremely important to generate the rules for refusing
prediction, and the rules should be fast in terms of computation. Fuzzy clustering
makes it possible to remove the main disadvantages intrinsic to classical methods
and to choose the discriminant function in wider, generic classes.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Problem statement</title>
      <p>Detailed problem statement is given in [3]. It will specify the problem of
constructing fast rejection rules. Let the alphabet of descriptors consists of M
elements [2]. Feature vectors of the molecular graph G is called a vector x =
(x1; : : : xM ) 2 RM , where xi { the value of the i-th descriptor computed for G.
Describing the mapping D : G ! RM is called a map that assigns M {graph
to his feature vector. Space R in this case is called the space of descriptors. We
?? The work is supported by the grant RFFI 10-07-00694
call classifying function F : RM ! fCigiH=1 that receives as an argument to a
feature vector x = (x1; : : : xM ) of an arbitrary molecular graph G, and assigns
the corresponding M -graph to the to one of the classes of activity Ci.
Sometimes it is convenient to classifying function was de ned on the set of
molecular graphs. When an argument F to specify an M -graph, one should realize
that F is computed on the corresponding feature vector. We set by de nition
F (Gi) = F (D(Gi)), where D - describing the mapping from the set of M -graphs
in the space of descriptors.</p>
      <p>Let the xed algorithm Alg for constructing classifying function F on the
training sample f(Gi; Ci)giN=1, predictive model is called the set of training set
f(Gi; Ci)giN=1 and algorithm Alg construct classifying function F = Alg(f(Gi; Ci)giN=1).</p>
      <p>To assess the predictive ability of models used the coe cient of cross-validation
[1, 3]. Now we formulate the problem of constructing rejection rules: Rejection
rule is called one or more functions g : RM ! f0; 1g with the following
interpretation: g(Gi) = 1 will constitute a reject of prediction activity of this molecular
graph, otherwise the prognosis can be made. Let g(Gi) := g(D(Gi)), where D
- describing the mapping from the set of M -graphs in the space of descriptors
RM . Is called a molecular graph Gi is admissible if in accordance with accepted
rejection rules, it belongs to the range of admissible argument for the classifying
function F . I.e. g(Gi) = 0. Let O = f(Gi; Ci)giN=1 { training sample, denoted</p>
      <p>O~ = f(Gi; Ci)giN=1 n f(Gj ; Cj )jg(Gj ) = 1; j = 1; : : : N g
{ a sample composed only of admissible M-graphs learning sample O. We call
rejection rule strong if it satis es the inequality Rc2v(O; Alg) &lt; Rc2v(O~; Alg).
3</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Solution method</title>
      <p>The idea is to use the cluster structure of the original training set for building
rejection rules for this compound. This is not only the ejections that simply do
not fall into one cluster, but also about the compounds, predict the activity of
which should not be on the more complex reasons based on the cluster structure.
For example, molecules that belong equally to two clusters, the models which
predict its activity in di erent ways. In addition, the important point is the need
to determine the admissibility of the molecular graph with minimal
computational cost. It is therefore proposed to compute rejection rules on special space of
descriptors, much smaller dimension than the original, for example, only
topological. Thus, we construct 2 of the space of descriptors, one { to build a rejection
rules, another { to do the classi cation and predict of activity. It arises naturally
reduced (special) the matrix molecule - descriptor, whose rows are the vectors
in a special space of descriptors. Regarding the fuzzy classifying function, the
approach is as follows. Apply a fuzzy clustering algorithm (c-means fuzzy, or any
other) [2]. Fuzzy clustering techniques, in contrast to the clear methods allow the
same object simultaneously belong to multiple clusters, but with varying degrees
[2, 7]. Fuzzy clustering in many situations, the more "natural" than the clear,
for example, for facilities located on the border of the clusters. Fuzzy clusters
describe the following matrix of the fuzzy partition:</p>
      <p>S = [ ij ];
ij 2 [0; 1]; i 2 f1; : : : N g;
j 2 f1; : : : kg
in which the i-th row contains the degree of membership of an object to clusters
S1; : : : SK .</p>
      <p>The only di erence between the matrix of the fuzzy partition and the
corresponding matrix of clearly partition that, when the fuzzy partition the degree
of membership of the object to the cluster takes values from the interval [0, 1],
and when the clearly - from the two-element set 0, 1. Now, with the partition
of the original space on the fuzzy clusters, within each construct local
predictive model (we assume that this is linear regression, but can be used any other
algorithm) [3, 4]. Suppose, for simplicity, we have 2 possible values of activity:
active / inactive, denote their respective numerical values 1 and -1. For the new
compound x~ = (x~1; : : : x~M ) we have k predictions of activity in accordance with
the number of clusters (models). Let the i-th model gave a prediction Ri, then
we can calculate the resulting prediction from the formula:</p>
      <p>Pk
y~ = i=1 Ri i ;</p>
      <p>k
where i { the degree of membership of the molecule to the i-th cluster. You
can specify the scope of the normalization of response y~, for example
y~ &lt;
0:5 ) y~ =</p>
      <p>1;
y~ &gt; 0:5 ) y~ = 1;
otherwise y~ = 0 { the rejection of predict.</p>
      <p>We now consider the optimization of fuzzy classifying function in the
parameters of fuzzy clustering. In [5] described several methods for constructing the
cluster structure of the training sample. We are interested in "fuzzy"
generalization of the cluster structure for the application of this approach. Let discovered
cluster structure of the original training set taking into account the removal
of ejections. Suppose, as before, the number of clusters k, and is known for a
clear partition of the matrix: S = [ ij ]; ij 2 f0; 1g; i 2 f1; : : : N g; j 2
f1; : : : kg; Pjk=1 ij = 1; i 2 f1; : : : N g; 0 &lt; PiN=1 ij &lt; N; j 2 f1; : : : kg:
in which the i-th row contains information about an object xi = (xi1; : : : xiM )
belonging to one of the clusters S1; : : : Sk. Assume also that each cluster is given by
its center Zi = fci1; : : : ciqg { a subset of the points of the cluster Si, center point
is called the cores of the cluster, and the radius is called ri = maxxj2Si (xj ; Zi).
We construct a matrix of fuzzy partition S~ = [ ij ], in which the i-th row contains
the degree of membership of an object (xi1; : : : xiM ) to the clusters S~1; : : : S~k.
Optimization parameters will be 1; 2 2 RM ; 1 1 2. We de ne small
and large cluster S~i radius as ri1 = 1ri and ri2 = 2ri respectively. Then the
elements of the matrix S~ = [ ij ] calculated by the formula:
ij = 1;
if</p>
      <p>(xi; Zj ) &lt; ri1;
ij = 0;
ij =
rj2
rj2</p>
      <p>if
(xi; Zj )
rj1
(xi; Zj ) &gt; ri2;
otherwise:</p>
      <p>Membership function of the point to cluster can also be nonlinear and contain
additional optimization options. This approach allows us to meaningfully use the
cluster structure of the sample is not limited in this case beyond a single cluster.
4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Results</title>
      <p>This algorithm was implemented and applied to three samples { amber odorants,
glycosides, and toxic compounds. In constructing the models used algorithm of
evolutionary selection of descriptors [4], we used a set of standard clustering
algorithms such as hierarchical clustering, k-means, etc Method showed signi cant
improvement in prediction quality in the construction of simple local models.
Optimization of the fuzzy classi er function by an average of 5 % improves the
prognosis. In all three samples were obtained for models with high predictive
ability. Along with the fast rejection rules our models can be used for
subsequent screening of databases of chemical compounds [5] in order to identify
compounds having the property under consideration.
5</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Conclusion</title>
      <p>These results demonstrate the practical signi cance of the proposed in paper
approach. New methods have yielded predictive models of high quality. In most
cases, a signi cant improvement in prediction quality as compared with
classical methods. Interests are other parameterizations of fuzzy cluster structure of
the training set and optimization of fuzzy classifying function for the new
parameters. Continuations of the work are also testing fast rejection rules and a
fuzzy classifying function in the screening of large databases of compounds with
unknown activity.
[1] Devetyarov D.A., Grigorieva S.S., Permyakov E.A. Kumskov M.I., Ponamoreva
L.A., Svitanko I.V. | Solution to the problem \structure { property" for molecules
with multiple spatial conformations. // System of predicting the properties of
chemical compounds: Algorithms and Models: Collected Works, Ed. MI Kumskov. Moscow:
MAKS Press, 2008 (in Russian).
[2] Shtovba S.D. Introduction to the theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. Vinnitsa:</p>
      <p>Publishing the Vinnitsa State Technical University, 2001. - 198. (in Russian).
[3] Prokhorov E.I., Perevoznikov A.V., Voropaev I.D., Kumskov M.I., Ponomareva
L.A. - Search representations of molecules and methods of prediction activity in the
problem of \structure { property" // Reports of the 14th All-Russian Conference
"Mathematical Methods for Pattern Recognition" MMRO-2009. | Moscow: MAX
Press. | 2009. | S. 589-591 (in Russian).
[4] Devetyarov D.A., Kumskov M.I. Apryshko G.N., Noseevich F.M. et al |
Comparative analysis of fuzzy descriptors in solving the \structure-property" problem for
a sample of glycosides // 14-th All{Russia. Conf. MMRO-14. | M.: MAKSPress,
2009. | C. 575-578 (in Russian).
[5] Prokhorov E.I., Perevoznikov A.V., Ponomarev L.A., Kumskov M.I. Neural network
as a tool to implement a piecewise linear classi er for mass screening of molecules in
\structure { property" problem. // Neurocomputers: development, application. | 3.
| S. 39-45 (in Russian).
[6] M.I. Kumskov, E.A. Smolensky, L.A. Ponomareva, D.F. Mityushev, N.S. Ze rov.</p>
      <p>Systems of Structural Descriptors for QSAR Problem Solving// Proceedings of the
Academy of Science { 1994. | Vol. 336, No. 1. | P. 64-66 (in Russian).
[7] L.A. Zadeh. Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control. | 1965. | P. 338{353.
[8] Sergei O. Kuznetsov, Mikhail V. Samokhin: Learning Closed Sets of Labeled Graphs
for Chemical Applications. ILP 2005: 190-208</p>
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