8VLQJODWHQWIHDWXUHVGLYHUVLILFDWLRQWRUHGXFHFKRLFH GLIILFXOW\LQUHFRPPHQGDWLRQOLVWV Martijn C. Willemsen Bart P. Knijnenburg Mark P. Graus Eindhoven University of Technology University of California, Irvine Eindhoven University of Technology Human-Technology Interaction group Department of Informatics Human-Technology Interaction group IPO 0.17, P.O. Box 513 DBH 5091 IPO 0.20, P.O. Box 513 5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands Irvine, CA 92697 5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands M.C.Willemsen@tue.nl bart.k@uci.edu M.P.Graus@tue.nl Linda C.M. Velter-Bremmers Kai Fu Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven University of Technology Human-Technology Interaction group Human-Technology Interaction group L.C.M.Bremmers@student.tue.nl K.Fu@student.tue.nl  $%675$&7 UHVHDUFKRQFKRLFH RYHUORDGVXJJHVWVWKDWFKRRVLQJDQLWHPIURP $Q LPSRUWDQW VLGH HIIHFW RI XVLQJ UHFRPPHQGHU V\VWHPV LV D VXFK D VHW PLJKW EH D GLIILFXOW WDVN 3UHYLRXV UHVHDUFK >@ KDV SKHQRPHQRQ FDOOHG ³FKRLFH RYHUORDG´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ÄGXUDWLRQெ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ெV SHUFHSWLRQ DQG H[SHULHQFHV LQ WHUPV RI FKRLFH RYHUORDG DQG WKDW WKH ODFN RI FRQWURO RYHU WKLV YDULDEOH WUDGHRII GLIILFXOW\ DQG FKRLFH GLIILFXOW\  RI WKH LWHP VHW )RUWKLV PLJKW EH RQH UHDVRQ ZK\ VWXGLHV RQ FKRLFH RYHUORDG VKRZ VXFK SXUSRVH ZH FKRVH D UHFRPPHQGHU XVLQJ D PDWUL[ IDFWRUL]DWLRQ YRODWLOH UHVXOWV 7KH EHQHILW RI XVLQJ UHFRPPHQGHU DOJRULWKPVLV DOJRULWKPDVWKHODWHQWIHDWXUHVXVHGE\WKHVHDOJRULWKPVSURYLGH WKDWWKHVHGRDOORZXVWRFRQWURO LWHPDWWUDFWLYHQHVVDQGLWHPVHW LGHDOPHDQVWRFRQWUROGLYHUVLW\DQGWUDGHRIIV GLYHUVLW\ DW WKH VDPH WLPH RIIHULQJ D SUHFLVH FRQWURO RI WKH 15  0DWUL[IDFWRUL]DWLRQDQGWUDGHRIIV KLJKO\ DWWUDFWLYHVHWV RI LWHPV ZH PLJKW ILQG WKDW HYHQ IRUVKRUW 0DWUL[IDFWRUL]DWLRQDOJRULWKPVWU\WRH[SUHVVPRYLHVDQGXVHUVLQ OLVWVGLYHUVLILFDWLRQKDVDVWURQJLPSDFWRQH[SHULHQFHGGLIILFXOW\ WHUPVRIYHFWRUVRQDVHWRIODWHQWIHDWXUHV)HDWXUHVDUHH[WUDFWHG 7R PHDVXUH WKH VXEMHFWLYH SHUFHSWLRQV DQG H[SHULHQFHV RI WKHVH LQVXFKDZD\WKDWWKHUHODWLYHSRVLWLRQVRIDQLWHPXVHUSDLU FDQ UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV DIWHU WKH SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI HDFK OLVW ZH HPSOR\ EHXVHGWRSUHGLFWWKHUDWLQJIRUWKHXVHURQWKDWLWHPDVDFFXUDWHO\ WKH XVHUFHQWULF IUDPHZRUN IRU XVHU H[SHULHQFH RI UHFRPPHQGHU DVSRVVLEOH7KHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV SURYLGHGDUHWKRVHLWHPVZLWK V\VWHPV DV GHVFULEHG LQ .QLMQHQEXUJ HW DO >@ %DVHG RQ WKLV KLJKHVWSUHGLFWHGUDWLQJIRUWKHXVHU IUDPHZRUN ZH H[SHFW WKDW WKH HIIHFW RI GLYHUVLILFDWLRQ RI WKH .RUHQ %HOO DQG 9ROLQVN\ >@ FODLP WKDW WKH YHFWRUV LQ PDWUL[ UHFRPPHQGHU RXWSXW RQ VXEMHFWLYH H[SHULHQFH ZLWK WKHOLVW KRZ IDFWRUL]DWLRQ PRGHO ³PHDVXUH WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKH LWHP GLIILFXOW LV LW WR PDNH WUDGHRIIV DQG FKRRVH IURP WKH OLVW  LV SRVVHVVHV WKRVH >IHDWXUHV@ SRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH´ DQG WKDW WKHVH PHGLDWHG E\ VXEMHFWLYH SHUFHSWLRQV RI WKH GLYHUVLW\ DQG IHDWXUHV UHODWH WR UHDOZRUOG FRQFHSWV IRU H[DPSOH Ä*HDUHG DWWUDFWLYHQHVV RI WKH OLVW ,Q SDUWLFXODU ZH H[SHFW WKDW LWHP OLVWV WRZDUGVPDOHVIHPDOHVெDQGÄ(VFDSLVW6HULRXVெ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ெ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Ȥ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 3HUFHLYHGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQGLYHUVLW\ LWHPV  PD[LPL]DWLRQ TXHVWLRQQDLUH E\ 6FKZDU] >@ 6FKZDU] GHILQHV  7KHOLVWRIPRYLHVZDVYDULHG SHRSOH ZKR DOZD\V WU\ WR PDNH WKH EHVW SRVVLEOH FKRLFH DV  $OOWKHPRYLHVZHUHVLPLODUWRHDFKRWKHU PD[LPL]HUVDQGSHRSOHZKRDLPIRU³JRRGHQRXJK´DVVDWLVILFHUV  0RVWPRYLHVZHUHIURPWKHVDPHJHQUH 0D[LPL]HUV FRQVLGHU PRUH RSWLRQV ZKHUHDV VDWLVILFHUV VWRS  0DQ\RIWKHPRYLHVLQWKHOLVWGLIIHUHGIURPRWKHUPRYLHV ORRNLQJZKHQWKH\KDYHIRXQGDQLWHPWKDWPHHWVWKHLUVWDQGDUGV LQWKHOLVW 7KHUHIRUH WKH VHDUFK FRVWV RI PD[LPL]HUV DUH KLJKHU DQG  7KHPRYLHVGLIIHUHGDORWIURPHDFKRWKHURQGLIIHUHQW FRQVHTXHQWO\ LW LV VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH\ DUH PRUH SURQH WR FKRLFH DVSHFWV RYHUORDG $IWHU WKHVH TXHVWLRQV WKH VHFRQG SDUW RI WKH VWXG\ ZDV XVHG WR  3HUFHLYHGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQDWWUDFWLYHQHVV LWHPV  JDWKHU UDWLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP WKH SDUWLFLSDQW WR EH DEOH WR  ,ZRXOGJLYHWKHUHFRPPHQGHGPRYLHVDKLJKUDWLQJ FDOFXODWH DQG SURYLGH SHUVRQDOL]HG UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV ,Q WKLV  7KHOLVWRIPRYLHVVKRZHGWRRPDQ\EDGLWHPV SKDVH WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DVNHG WR UDWH D WRWDO RI WHQ PRYLHV  7KHOLVWRIPRYLHVZDVDWWUDFWLYH 7KH\ZHUHSUHVHQWHGZLWKWHQUDQGRPO\VHOHFWHGPRYLHVDWDWLPH  ,GLGQெWOLNHDQ\RIWKHUHFRPPHQGHGLWHPV ZLWK WKH LQVWUXFWLRQ WR UDWH RQO\ WKH PRYLHV WKH\ ZHUH IDPLOLDU  7KHOLVWRIUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVPDWFKHGP\SUHIHUHQFHV ZLWK UDWLQJV ZHUH HQWHUHG RQ D VFDOH IURP  WR  VWDUV  $IWHU LQVSHFWLQJ DQG SRVVLEO\  UDWLQJ VRPH RI WKH WHQ PRYLHV VKRZQ  6WUHQJWKRISUHIHUHQFH LWHPV  XVHUVFRXOGJHWDQHZOLVWRIPRYLHVE\SUHVVLQJDEXWWRQ:KHQ  ,KDYHFOHDUO\GHILQHGSUHIHUHQFHVFRQFHUQLQJPRYLHV WKHSDUWLFLSDQWKDGHQWHUHGWHQRUPRUHUDWLQJVLQWRWDOWKH\ZRXOG  ,NQRZZKDWNLQGRIPRYLHV,OLNH EHJXLGHGWRWKHWKLUGSDUW  0RVWRIWKHWLPH,OHWVRPHRQHHOVHSLFNDPRYLHIRUPH ,QWKHWKLUGSDUWWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVHTXHQWLDOO\UHFHLYHGWKUHHWLPHVD  OLVW ZLWK UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV HDFK WLPH ZLWK D GLIIHUHQW OHYHO RI     %DVHGRQH[WHQVLYHVLPXODWLRQV+XDQG%HQWOHU>@SURSRVHFXW 6HHKWWSZZZP\PHGLDSURMHFWRUJ RIIYDOXHVIRUWKHVHILWLQGLFHVWREH&),!7/,!DQG  7KH0RYLH/HQVGDWDVHWLVDYDLODEOHDWKWWSJURXSOHQVRUJ 506($ 17 $WWKHVDPHWLPHWKHSUHGLFWHGUDWLQJVGRQRWGLIIHUEHWZHHQWKH  0RYLHH[SHUWLVH LWHPV  WKUHH OHYHOV RI GLYHUVLILFDWLRQ VKRZLQJ WKDW ZH PDQLSXODWHG  ,DPDPRYLHORYHU GLYHUVLW\ LQGHSHQGHQW RI SUHGLFWHG  DWWUDFWLYHQHVV 7KH VWDQGDUG  &RPSDUHGWRP\SHHUV,ZDWFKDORWRIPRYLHV GHYLDWLRQ RI WKH SUHGLFWHG UDWLQJV IRU WKH WKUHH VHW GRHV LQFUHDVH  &RPSDUHGWRP\SHHUV,DPDQH[SHUWRQPRYLHV VOLJKWO\ZLWKLQFUHDVLQJGLYHUVLW\  ,RQO\NQRZDIHZPRYLHV  6(00RGHO  0D[LPL]LQJWHQGHQF\ LWHPV  7KH VXEMHFWLYH FRQVWUXFWV IURP WKH ()$ ZHUH RUJDQL]HG LQWR D  1RPDWWHUZKDW,GR,KDYHWKHKLJKHVWVWDQGDUGVIRU SDWK PRGHO XVLQJ D FRQILUPDWRU\ VWUXFWXUDO HTXDWLRQ PRGHOLQJ P\VHOI 6(0 DSSURDFKZLWKUHSHDWHGRUGLQDOGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVDQGD  ,QHYHUVHWWOHIRUWKHVHFRQGEHVW ZHLJKWHG OHDVW VTXDUHV HVWLPDWRU ,Q WKH UHVXOWLQJ PRGHO WKH  VXEMHFWLYHFRQVWUXFWVDUHVWUXFWXUDOO\UHODWHGWRHDFKRWKHUDQGWR 7ZRDGGLWLRQDOLWHPVZHUHVHOHFWHGDVLQGLFDWRUV WKH FRQGLWLRQV OLVW OHQJWK DQG GLYHUVLILFDWLRQ OHYHO  7KH PRGHO ZDV FRQVWUXFWHG EDVHG RQ WKH XVHUFHQWULF IUDPHZRUN IRU XVHU  &KRLFHGLIILFXOW\ ³,ZRXOGILQGLWGLIILFXOWWRFKRRVHDPRYLH H[SHULHQFHRIUHFRPPHQGHUV\VWHPVGHVFULEHGLQ.QLMQHQEXUJHW IURPWKLVOLVW´  DO>@,QWKHILQDO PRGHOWKHPD[LPL]HUVFDOHGLGQRWUHODWHWR  7UDGHRIIGLIILFXOW\ ³,KDGWRSXWDORWRIHIIRUWLQWR DQ\RWKHUYDULDEOHDQGZDVWKHUHIRUHUHPRYHGIURPWKHDQDO\VLV FRPSDULQJWKHGLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVRIWKHPRYLHV´  7KHPDQLSXODWLRQ³OLVWOHQJWK´ ZKHWKHUSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHVKRZQ     RU  UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV  DOVR GLG QRW KDYH D 1LQH DGGLWLRQDO LWHPV IDLOHGWR FRQWULEXWHWR D VLQJOH IDFWRU DQG VLJQLILFDQW LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH RWKHU YDULDEOHV 7KH UHVXOWV DUH ZHUHWKHUHIRUHGHOHWHGIURPWKHDQDO\VLV WKHUHIRUHFROODSVHGRYHUWKHVHFRQGLWLRQV:HDOVRGLGQRWREVHUYH  0DQLSXODWLRQFKHFNV DQ\HIIHFWRIWKHRUGHULQZKLFKWKHWKUHHOLVWVZHUHSUHVHQWHG :H FRPSDUHG WKH UHVXOWLQJ GLYHUVLW\ SUHGLFWHG UDWLQJV DQG 7KHILQDOPRGHOKDGDJRRGPRGHOILW Ȥ   S YDULDQFH RI WKH SUHGLFWHG UDWLQJV LQ RXU GDWD WR FKHFN RXU &),   7/,   506($    )LJXUH  GLVSOD\V WKH GLYHUVLILFDWLRQ DOJRULWKP $V FDQ EH VHHQ LQ 7DEOH  RXU HIIHFWV IRXQG LQ WKLV PRGHO )DFWRU VFRUHV LQWKH ILQDO PRGHO DUH GLYHUVLILFDWLRQDOJRULWKPLQGHHGLQFUHDVHVWKHDYHUDJHUDQJHRIWKH VWDQGDUGL]HG WKH QXPEHUV RQ WKH DUURZV $  %  GHQRWH WKH VFRUHVRQWKHPDWUL[IDFWRUL]DWLRQIHDWXUHV FDOFXODWHGWKURXJK HVWLPDWHGPHDQGLIIHUHQFHLQ%PHDVXUHGLQVWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQV (TXDWLRQ DSUR[\RIWKHOHYHORIDWWULEXWHGLYHUVLW\ EHWZHHQSDUWLFLSDQWVWKDWGLIIHURQHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQLQ$7KH ( ) ( ) QXPEHULQSDUHQWKHVHVGHQRWHVWKHVWDQGDUGHUURURIWKLVHVWLPDWH  𝐴𝐹𝑆𝑅 =   ∑  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attractiveness diversity choice diff. tradeoff diff. 0.7 0.2 0.6 standardized score 0 scale difference 0.5 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.8 0 -1 low mid high low mid high  diversification diversification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ெ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¶ %DUFHORQD 6SDLQ >@ 5HXWVNDMD ( DQG +RJDUWK 50  6DWLVIDFWLRQ LQ   FKRLFH DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI DOWHUQDWLYHV :KHQ '2, KWWSGRLDFPRUJ ³JRRGV VDWLDWH´ 3V\FKRORJ\ DQG 0DUNHWLQJ   0DU >@ &KHUQHY $  3URGXFW DVVRUWPHQW DQG LQGLYLGXDO   GHFLVLRQ SURFHVVHV -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO >@ 6FKHLEHKHQQH % *UHLIHQHGHU 5 DQG 7RGG 30  3V\FKRORJ\   &DQ7KHUH(YHU%H7RR0DQ\2SWLRQV"$0HWD-­‐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±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ெSUHIHUHQWLDOFKRLFH"3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH  ,PSURYLQJ UHFRPPHQGDWLRQ OLVWV WKURXJK WRSLF DQQXDOFRQIHUHQFHH[WHQGHGDEVWUDFWVRQ+XPDQIDFWRUVLQ GLYHUVLILFDWLRQ 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH WK LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPSXWLQJ V\VWHPV 9DQFRXYHU %& &DQDGD   ± FRQIHUHQFHRQ:RUOG:LGH:HE &KLED-DSDQ ±   >@ .QLMQHQEXUJ %3 :LOOHPVHQ 0& *DUWQHU = 6RQFX  + DQG 1HZHOO & ([SODLQLQJ WKH 8VHU ([SHULHQFH RI   20