=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=None
|storemode=property
|title=Econometric Analysis of Factors which Determine a Choice of Entrants
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-848/ICTERI-2012-CEUR-WS-ITER-paper-2-p-267-272.pdf
|volume=Vol-848
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/icteri/KhristenkoW12
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==Econometric Analysis of Factors which Determine a Choice of Entrants==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-848/ICTERI-2012-CEUR-WS-ITER-paper-2-p-267-272.pdf
Econometric Analysis of Factors which Determine a
Choice of Entrants
A. Khristenko1 and A. J. Weissblut1
1
Kherson State University, Chair of Informatics, 40 rokiv Zhovtnya, 27,
73000 Kherson, Ukraine
veits@ksu.ks.ua
Abstract. In this article the factors determining a choice by entrants of a
speciality and university are investigated. They include the correlation analysis
of factors and an estimation of the statistical importance of the received results.
The important purpose of research is the division of respondents on more
homogeneous groups. Thus we have tried to estimate the factor of influence of
parents on decision-making. This work is focused not only on direct use, but
also on application in the educational process. It full realization is supposed in a
subsystem "Analysis" of a site of Faculty of physics, mathematics and
informatics, developed in the Kherson state university.
Keywords. Factor, statistical, econometric, decision-making, university,
speciality.
Key Terms. Research, Management, Model, KnowledgeManagementProcess,
KnowledgeManagementMethodology, MathematicalModeling.
1 Introduction
In this article the factors determining a choice by entrants of a speciality and
university are investigated. This work is focused not only on direct use, but also on
application in the educational process. Really, the mentality, fixed in distributions
received in this article, as a rule, does not undergo significant changes during study.
Formally these distributions determine aim functions for optimization tasks, used for
support of decision-making. Their realization is supposed in a subsystem "Analysis"
of a site of Faculty of physics, mathematics and informatics, developed in the
Kherson state university.
268 A. Khristenko and A. J. Weissblut
2 Results
2.1 Factors Determined a Choice of a Speciality
Further the histogram for distribution of the factors which have determined a choice
of a speciality is shown. This is distribution for "typical" student of first year study of
a speciality “informatics” (the exact sense of his typicalness is mentioned below).
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Fig. 18. Answers distribution.
Here
Q1. Reputation (prestigiousness).
Q2. I like to program.
Q3. I like to communicate with a computer.
Q4. I liked at school 1) computer science or 2) programming or 3) mathematics or
4) economy.
Q5. It in the future will provide highly paid work.
Q6. It in the future will ensure the job.
Q7. The big number of budgetary positions on this speciality.
Q8. Ease of receipt.
Factors of influence:
Q9. The type of preparation at school.
Q10. Familiars at faculty (students or employees).
Q11. The program of an exchange with foreign universities.
Q12. Advice of parents.
Q13. Advice familiars of parents.
Q14. Advice of friends.
Q15. Advice of teachers.
Q16. Speech in a class of teachers of the faculty.
Q17. Advertising of faculty.
Q18. Impression from probationers from the university.
Econometric Analysis of Factors … 269
Q19. Data from newspapers.
Q20. Data from the Internet.
1) These factors have been chosen in result of "brainstorming" where as experts
students of first and fourth year study of a speciality “informatics” acted. This expert
interrogation has been constructed by a technique of " six thinking hats ” E. Bono [1],
which provides the maximal openness and relaxedness of participants. In all cases the
opinion has unanimously been expressed, that the given set of factors is full and fair.
Then students of first year study of specialities “informatics” and “program
engineering” has been interviewed under such essential factors. The respondents
estimate the importance for them each factor points from 0 (at its full insignificance)
up to 10. He arbitrarily sets a name of the file containing his interrogation (i.e. his
key). The volunteer - a participant of interrogation - collects all files in a folder and
sorts them (i.e. shuffles). Only after that the folder was transferred to the senior
student, who conducts the interrogation: this simple and open procedure guaranteed to
participants anonymity of interrogation. 3) Results of interrogation then will be worn
out in table of a database of a site of faculty. The queries realizing now on the basis of
pattern MVC (Model-View-Controller) [2] for a database control system MySQL
give out results of the econometric analysis of interrogation. They include the
correlation analysis of factors and an estimation of the statistical importance of the
received results (see [3]).
Let's show some results of the analysis. The histogram of distribution of average
values of factors is resulted below.
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Fig. 19. Answers distribution.
1. The most significant factors appeared (in decreasing order) Q3, Q2, Q6 and Q5.
2. The most essential factors of influence on a choice with a significant separation
from the others appeared (in decreasing order) Q20 and Q18. However both
factors have the big dispersion: are essential to one and are indifferent for others.
3. The understanding has cleared up with respondents of the factor Q1 (reputation,
prestigiousness). This factor strongly correlates only with two: Q5 and first of all
270 A. Khristenko and A. J. Weissblut
with the big separation Q6. Those respondents, who appreciably reacted to
prestigiousness, reacted also to factors of influence Q18 and Q20 more essential.
If carry out the correlation analysis also between answers of respondents thus it is
possible to reveal the most typical respondent (his interrogation is submitted above on
the first histogram). This is that respondent at whom the average factor of correlation
with other respondents is maximal.
2.2 Factors Determined a Choice of a University
Simultaneously and in the same way carried out research of mental factors and the
factors of influence determining a choice of university by entrants. The histogram of
distribution of the average importance of the factors, which have determined a choice
of university, is resulted below.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Fig. 20. Answers distribution.
Here
Q1. Distance from the university.
Q2. Reputation (prestigiousness).
Q3. Familiars at faculty (students or employees).
Q4. Teachers of this university really work with students and give real knowledge.
Q5. The student's life.
Q6. The big number of budgetary positions.
Q7. Comparative cheapness of study in comparison with other universities.
Q8. The program of an exchange with foreign universities.
Q9. An opportunity of training together with foreign students.
Q10. 4 days of training (presence of methodical day).
Q11. Wi-Fi.
Q12. Warm auditoriums.
Q13. Trainings in one building (“ it is not necessary to run on buildings ”).
Econometric Analysis of Factors … 271
Factors of influence:
Q14. The type of preparation at school.
Q15. Advice of parents.
Q16. Advice familiars of parents.
Q17. Advice of friends.
Q18. The book “ High schools of Ukraine ”.
Q19. Advice of teachers.
Q20. Speech in a class of teachers of the university.
Q21. Advertising of the university.
Q22. Impression from probationers from the university.
Q23. Data from newspapers.
Q24. Data from the Internet.
Here results of the correlation analysis of the factors, determining a choice, turned
out such.
1. The most significant factors with a great separation from the others
appeared: Q2, Q4, Q5, Q10 - Q13 (conditions for study). Distinctions of the
importance between these factors the tenth shares of a point, it can be
neglected in comparison with root-mean-square deviations of these factors.
2. The most essential factors of influence on a choice of university is the same,
as at a choice of a speciality: it is Q24 (Internet) and Q22 (probationers of
university at schools).
3. At a choice of university prestigiousness (reputation) was included in
number of major factors. As the correlation analysis has shown,
prestigiousness is strongly connected to all significant factors specified in
item1, both factors of influence from item 2, and poorly connected to other
examined factors.
4. Interrogation has shown that the significant majority at first chooses a
speciality and then university: a ratio of points approximately 7 : 3.
2.3 Factor of Influence of Parents on Decision-Making
The important purpose of statistical research is the division of respondents on more
homogeneous groups. In this case, however, results appeared very homogeneous for
factors at a choice of a speciality (with high coefficients of mutual correlation) and a
little less homogeneous at a choice of university. In the latter case we have tried to
estimate the factor of influence of parents on decision-making.
3 Conclusions
A direct question the significant majority have answered, that the decision they
accepted independently or with small participation of parents: a ratio of points 8,5
: 1,5. We have separated answers of 14 respondents from 21, asserting that their
decisions were accepted practically without influence of parents (a ratio of points 10 :
0 or 9 : 1) and have compared answers of this group to answers of an additional
subgroup. The most significant factors and essential factors of influence appeared all
same in both subgroups. At the same time, the ratio of the importance of these factors
272 A. Khristenko and A. J. Weissblut
has changed. In a subgroup of the respondents asserting about independence of
parents, the importance of factor Q4 has increased on a point in comparison with the
data for all group. In result this factor (teachers of this university really work with
students and give real knowledge) became leading (mean mark 7,57, a mean score
on all group 6,85). In other subgroup the importance of this factor has accordingly
decreased (mean mark 5,28).
9
8
7
6
5 All group
4
3 Subgroup 1
2
1
Additional
0 subgroup
Q2 Q4 Q5 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q22 Q24
Fig. 21. Answers distribution.
At the same time, in this subgroup the importance of factors of conditions of
training Q10 - Q13 have grown on a point in comparison with the data for all group.
So Q13 in second subgroup 7,83, for all group 6,21, for independent of parents
respondents 5,46. The factor of influence Q22 (probationers of university) for
independent of parents respondents 4,57, for all group 3,8, for second subgroup
2,28. Mean scores of all other factors do not differ essentially in both subgroups. The
comparative histogram of distribution of significant factors for subgroups is resulted
below.
References
1. De Bono E.: Six Thinking Hats. Penguins Books, Boston (1997)
2. Django Book, http: //www.djbook.ru.
3. The Social Science Computing Cooperative: Providing Computer Services for the Social
Sciences at UW-Madison, http: //www.ssc.wisc.edu.