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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Link Prediction in Multi-relational Graphs using Additive Models</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Xueyan Jiang</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Volker Tresp</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Yi Huang</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Maximilian Nickel</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Munich</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="DE">Germany</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Siemens AG, Corporate Technology</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Munich</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="DE">Germany</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>We present a general and novel framework for predicting links in multirelational graphs using a set of matrices describing the various instantiated relations in the knowledge base. We construct matrices that add information further remote in the knowledge graph by join operations and we describe how unstructured information can be integrated in the model. We show that e cient learning can be achieved using an alternating least squares approach exploiting sparse matrix algebra and low-rank approximations. We discuss the relevance of modeling nonlinear interactions and add corresponding model components. We also discuss a kernel solution which is of interest when it is easy to de ne sensible kernels. We discuss the relevance of feature selection for the interaction terms and apply a random search strategy to tune the hyperparameters in the model. We validate our approach using data sets from the Linked Open Data (LOD) cloud and from other sources.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>There is a growing amount of data published in multirelational graphs where
information elements are represented as subject-predicate-object (s, p, o) triples.
Entities (i.e., subjects and objects) are represented as nodes and statements are
represented as directed labeled links from subject node to object node. A machine
learning task of some generality is the prediction of links between entities using
patterns in known labeled links in the knowledge base.</p>
      <p>We present a general framework for predicting links in multirelational graphs
using a set of matrices describing the various instantiated relations in the
knowledge base. We rst consider triples in the immediate neighborhood of the triple of
interest and then construct matrices that add information further remote in the
knowledge graph by performing join operations. We also consider the case that
unstructured information is available that can support the link prediction task
and we describe how unstructured information can be integrated in the model.
Examples of unstructured information are textual documents describing the
involved entities (e.g., from the entities' Wikipedia pages). We show that e cient
learning can be achieved using an alternating least squares approach exploiting
sparse matrix algebra and low-rank approximations. We discuss the relevance
of modeling nonlinear interactions and add corresponding model components.
We also discuss a kernel solution which is of interest when it is easy to de ne
sensible kernels. We discuss the relevance of feature selection for the interaction
terms and apply a random search strategy to tune the hyperparameters in the
model. We validate our approach using data sets from the Linked Open Data
(LOD) cloud and from other sources.</p>
      <p>The paper is organized as follows. The next section discusses related work.
Section 3 describes our basic approach. Section 4 describes the cost function and
the alternating least squares solution for parameter learning. In Section 5 we
discuss aggregation via joint operations, the inclusion of unstructured
information and interaction terms. Section 6 contains our experimental results. Section 7
presents our conclusions.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Related Work</title>
      <p>
        One of the rst line of research where matrix representations were used for link
prediction in multirelational graphs is the SUNS framework [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ] [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. A major
extension was the probabilistic extension of the SUNS approach reported in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ].
The same paper also describes how information extraction (IE) can be combined
with deductive reasoning and machine learning for link prediction, where the
combination is implemented as a postprocessing step. The additive approach
presented in this paper is novel and has several advantages. It considers a model
for a complete knowledge-base of triples and considers dependencies on all triples
in the immediate neighborhood of the triple. Whereas in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ], the combination
was a postprocessing step, here we optimize the additive model globally. Also the
discussion on aggregation by joint operations is novel, as well as the application
of alternating least squares for optimizing the penalized cost function.
      </p>
      <p>
        The winning entries in the Net ix competitions are based on matrix
factorization [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. The main di erence is that in those applications unknown ratings
can be treated as missing entries whereas in relational prediction, the topic here,
they are treated as negative evidence.
      </p>
      <p>
        Multi-relational graphs also map elegantly to a tensor representation. Tensor
models for relational learning have been explored in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ], showing both scalability
and state-of-the-art results on benchmark datasets.
3
3.1
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Link Prediction in Multi-relational Graphs</title>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Relational Adjacency Matrices</title>
        <p>In this paper we assume that labeled links are represented as triples of the form
(s, p, o) where subject s and object o stand for entities in a domain and where p
is the predicate, i.e. the link label. We de ne a variable xi;j;k that is associated
with the triple (s = i, p = j, o = k). We set xi;j;k = 1 when the triple is known
to exist, otherwise xi;j;k = 0. In the multirelational graph, the entities form the
nodes and the existing triples form labeled links.</p>
        <p>We now consider a domain with N entities and P predicates. For the
predicate p= j in the domain we de ne a relational adjacency matrix Xj 2 RN N
where (Xj )i;k = 1 if xi;j;k = 1 and (Xj )i;k = 0 otherwise. The matrix of
concatenated relational adjacency matrices X = (X1; : : : XP ) describes all existing
and all potential triples involving all known entities in the knowledge base.
In the basic model we assume that the truth value of a triple (s= i, p= j, o= k)
can be estimated as a linear combination of directly related triples, de ned as
all triples (s= i, p= j0, o= k0) where i is the subject, all triples (s= i0, p= j0,
o= i) where i is the object, all triples (s= k, p= j0, o= k0) where k is the subject
and all triples (s= i0, p= j0, o= k) where k is the object. Finally we consider
triples with arbitrary predicates but where two entities from the target triple
are involved, i.e., (s= i, p= j0, o= k), and (s= k, p= j0, o= i). If xi;j;k = 0, the
predicted x^i;j;k 0 can then be interpreted as a likelihood that the triple is true
based on the immediate context of the triple.</p>
        <p>We now form the matrix M = (X; Xy) where Xy = (X1T ; : : : XPT ) denotes
the in-place matrix transposed of X (Figure 1). Let (M )i;l = mi;l.</p>
        <p>Following the discussion we form the model
For further reference, we call the rst term in the sum in Equation 1 the subject
term, the second one the object term, and the last one the subject-object term.3
The w:;:, r:;:, and h:;: are model parameters to be estimated.
3 Note that we get nontrivial solutions by using regularized parameter ts with
lowrank constraints, as described in Section 4.</p>
        <p>The subject term represents triples where i is the subject, when l = 1; : : : P or
where i is the object, when l = P + 1; : : : 2P . Similar the object term represents
triples where k is the subject, when l = 1; : : : P or where k is the object, when
l = P + 1; : : : 2P . The subject-object term considers all triples that involve both
i and k with any predicate (see Figure 2 (a)).
3.3</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>Model Discussion</title>
        <p>Note that we assume that the rows in M are exchangeable such that the weights
in object term wl;k+(j 1)N are independent of i, and the weights in the subject
term rl;i+(j 1)N are independent of k. The parameters hl;j in the subject-object
term are independent of both i and k.</p>
        <p>There are of course also other ways to segment the parameter space. For
example, one might decide that the semantics of the predicate \like" is very
di erent when subject is a person than if the subject is a dog and the object is
a bone. Technically this could mean that, e.g., we write wl;k+(j 1)N;type(i) and
the model correspondingly would have more parameters.</p>
        <p>As a special case, we only have one predicate, i.e. "like\ and entity types
users and movies. If we apply the learning procedure as described in Section 4
we obtain a solution that only exploit correlations between triples with the same
predicate, i.e., intrarelational correlations. In e ect, we obtain a regularized
lowrank approximation of the relational adjacency matrix which is a model often
used in collaborative ltering applications. Additional relational adjacency
matrixes, for example representing user and movie attributes, can then help to
support the prediction of \like"-triples.</p>
        <p>One might want to think of the last equation in terms of an if-then-rule
where the right side of the equation describes the condition and the left side
describes the conclusion. In this view the subject ?s and the object ?o would be
variables4 and the subject term describes relations including the rst variable,
the object term describes relations including the second variable, and the
subjectobject term describes relations including both variables. All these variables are
universally quanti ed, which means that the expression is valid for all subjects
?s and all objects ?o. We can introduce additional variables in the condition part
for certain aggregation operations, as described in Section 5, and these variables
would be existentially quanti ed (as in Horn clauses).
4
4.1</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Cost Function and Parameter Optimization</title>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>Penalized Cost Function</title>
        <p>We can write the model of Equation 1 e ciently in matrix form as
X^ = M W + (M R)y + matrix(N P N)</p>
        <p>M~ H
(2)
Here, M~ = (vect(X1); : : : ; vect(XP ); vect(X1T ); : : : ; vect(XPT )) is an N 2 2P
matrix where the column vector vect(:) contains all elements of the corresponding
relational adjacency matrix. Furthermore, W 2 R2P N P N , R 2 R2P N P N , and
H 2 R2P P are parameter matrices. The operation matrix(N P N)(:) transforms
the result of the matrix product into a N P N matrix.</p>
        <p>We de ne a penalized least squares cost function as
kX</p>
        <p>X^ k2F +</p>
        <p>W kW k2F +</p>
        <p>RkRk2F +</p>
        <p>H kHk2F
where kkF is the Frobenius norm. The last three terms are used to regularize
the solution to avoid over tting.
4.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-2">
        <title>Alternating Least Squares</title>
        <p>We optimize the parameter matrices W , R, and H using an alternating least
squares procedure as described in this subsection.</p>
        <p>To reduce computation and to further regularize the solution, we rst
decompose using singular value decomposition (SVD)</p>
        <p>M = U DV T</p>
        <p>M~ = U~ D~ V~ T
and only use the leading singular values and corresponding singular vectors in
the model. Another bene t of this low-rank approximation is that we implicitly
4 We use the common notation of indicating a variable by a question mark in front of
a symbol.
bene t from a sharing of statistical strengths leading to performance
improvements, as it is well known from Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA).</p>
        <p>We de ne X^ ( W ) as X minus the estimate in Equation 2 using the parameter
estimates in the current iteration step, except that W = 0, i.e. we remove the
subject term in the sum. Similarly, we de ne X^ ( R) as X minus the estimate in
Equation 2 using the parameter estimates in the current iteration step, except
that R = 0, i.e. we remove the object term in the sum. Finally, we de ne X^ ( H)
as X minus the estimate in Equation 2 using the parameter estimates in the
current iteration step, except that H = 0, i.e. we remove the subject-object
term in the sum.</p>
        <p>In the alternating least squares steps we iterate until convergence
r
M W = Ur diag
M R = Ur diag
M~ H = U~r~ diag
di2
di2
di2 +
di2 +
(
~2
di
d~i2 + ~H</p>
        <p>W
i=1
r
R i=1
)r~
i=1</p>
        <p>UrT X^ ( W )
U T
r</p>
        <p>X^ ( R) y
U~r~T X~ ( H)
(3)
(4)
(5)
where in X~ ( H) = matrixN2 P X( H) each relational adjacency matrix is
written as a column vector. In particular for the update in Equation 5, a solution
in terms of the V -matrices might be more e cient (see the Appendix).
4.3</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-3">
        <title>Computational Costs</title>
        <p>Considering domains with several million entities, the computations seem to be
expensive. Fortunately, in the computations one can explore the extreme sparsity
of all relational adjacency matrices in many domains of interests. For example,
due to type constraints, nonzero elements are often restricted to one or a small
number of blocks in the matrices. For example if entities are users and movies
and X stands for \likes" then only the submatrix with users as rows and movies
as columns contains nonzero elements, re ecting the fact that users like movies
but, e.g., movies do not like users. Also, if one is only interested to predict
entries in one particular relational adjacency matrix, we only need to calculate
the parameters relevant to predicting the entries in that particular matrix.</p>
        <p>We also want to point out that one could also apply the SVD to each
relational adjacency matrix separately or to blocks of relational adjacency matrices,
instead of M ; essentially one should make this decision on the expected
performance bene ts of the matrix decompositions and the computational costs.
5
5.1</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Extensions</title>
      <sec id="sec-5-1">
        <title>Aggregation by Join Operations</title>
        <p>The triples represented in Equation 2 only consider the immediate neighborhood
of the triples (s, p, o) under consideration. It is easy to extend the formalism
to also consider triples further away in the graph. As an example, consider the
case that the likelihood that a person likes a movie is increased if at least one
friend likes the movie. The latter information can be represented by the matrix,
representing a join operation, formed by XfriendLikesMovie = min (1; XfriendOfXlikes)
where min is applied component wise. Then XfriendLikesMovie (and its transposed)
is simply added as an additional relational adjacency matrix. Now we can model
(via the subject term in Equation 2) that a person might like \Action Hero 3" if
at least one friend likes \Action Hero 3"; the subject-object term in Equation 2
can even model the more general dependency that a person likes any movie if at
least one friend likes that movie.</p>
        <p>The general form of an aggregated adjacency matrix is Xa = min (1; Qi Mi)
where Mi 2 (X1; : : : XP ; X1T ; : : : XPT ). Naturally, it is not feasible to consider
an in nite set of matrix products. Possible approaches are that the user de nes
a small set of interesting candidates or that one applies structural search, e.g.,
by using approaches borrowed from the eld of Inductive Logic Programming.
Many more forms of aggregation are possible. For example one might not apply
the min operation and, e.g, count how many friends liked a movie, or what
percentage of friends liked a movie.</p>
        <p>Here are two interesting examples involving join operations. First, let's
assume that a person tends to be rich if this person has a rich friend: The triple
of interest is (?u, type, RichPerson). We join (?u, hasFriend, ?f) and (?f, type,
RichPerson) and obtain a matrix that indicates if anybody of a person's friends
is rich (see Figure 2 (b)). Second, let's assume that a person often prefers
restaurants of the nationality of that person: The triple of interest is (?u, likes, ?r).
We join (?u, hasNationality, ?c) and (?r, hasNationality, ?c) and obtain a matrix
that indicates if the user and the restaurant have the same nationality.
5.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-2">
        <title>Contextual and Unstructured Data</title>
        <p>
          Sometimes there is contextual information available, often in textual form, that
describe entities and relationships and can be exploited for link prediction [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ].
For example, one can use keywords in an entity's Wikipedia articles as attributes
of that entity. The triples (s, itsWikiPageHasKeyword, Keyword) can simply be
added as an additional relational adjacency matrix in the approach. If a
keyword can be identi ed as an entity, then this information is even more valuable.
Information extraction (IE) can also be used to extract triples from text and
these triples can then presented in matrix form as well. In the latter case, the
subject-object term in Equation 2 can be expected to be most valuable: if, for
example, the IE system extracts with high con dence that (Jack, knows, Jane)
this could be information for predicting that (Jack, hasFriend, Jane).
5.3
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-3">
        <title>Interaction Terms</title>
        <p>In Equation 2 we used a linear system, which is suitable in many high-dimensional
domains. Of course, one can apply more general models such as neural networks
as predictive models. Often this is unsuitable since the computational costs would
explode. In our approach we stay with a model linear in the parameters but add
nonlinear interaction terms. As an example, assume that young users prefer
action movies. We de ne a new triple (?u, YoungAction, ?m) that is true if (?u,
hasAge, Young) is true and (?m, type, ActionMovie) is true (see Figure 2 (c)).
In general, the subject-object term in Equation 1 can be expected to be most
valuable here as well. To keep the number of these interaction terms small, we
apply a feature selection procedure, as described in Section 6.
5.4</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-4">
        <title>Kernel Formulation</title>
        <p>
          So far our discussion focussed on a representation in feature space. Here we
discuss a representation in kernel space. A kernel formulation is appropriate for
data in a multirelational graph and suitable kernels are described in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11 ref3 ref4 ref8">11,4,3,8</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>From Equation 2 one can see that two kernels are involved in our approach,
the rst one k(:; :) involving two entities, either two subjects k(s; s0) or two
objects k(o; o0). The second kernel k~((s; o); (s0; o0)) involves two subject-object
pairs. Given the corresponding kernel matrices K and K~ we can decompose using
a singular value decomposition</p>
        <p>K = U DDT U T</p>
        <p>K~ = U~ D~ D~ T U~ T
and use the resulting terms in the update Equations 3 to 5.
6
6.1</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Experiments</title>
      <sec id="sec-6-1">
        <title>Tuning of Hyperparameters</title>
        <p>
          We have several hyperparameters that need to be tuned (rank of approximations;
regularization parameters). We follow the approach described in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
          ] and perform
a random search for the best hyperparameters using cross-validation sets (i.e.
they are not tuned on the test set).
6.2
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-6-2">
        <title>Synthetic Data</title>
        <p>The synthetic data has been generated according to our modeling assumptions.
We de ne a target predicate of interest and call the triples involving the target
predicate the target triples. In addition we have triples related to the subject, i.e.,
describing subject attributes, and triples related to the object, i.e., describing
object attributes. In addition we use interaction triples generated by conjunctions
on subject and object triples.</p>
        <p>
          Figure 3 shows the results of using di erent relational adjacency matrices.
The proposed model that uses all sources of information (Mglobal) performs best.
Also if we only exploit subject attributes and object attributes (Fall) we obtain
signi cant predictive power. A model only using intrarelational information MCF
is quite strong. The reason is that, if su cient amount of target triples are known
to be true, the information on subject and object attributes is implicitly modeled
in MCF as well. This is a result also con rmed in the remaining experiments: if
MCF is quite strong, adding subject and object information does not improve the
model further, even when the latter might have predictive power. The proposed
model (Mglobal) is signi cantly better than the reference model (MHBS) described
in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ] that used a hierarchical Bayesian combination scheme.
The task here is to predict diseases that are likely associated with a gene based
on knowledge about gene and disease attributes and about known gene-disease
patterns. In our experiments we extracted information on known relationships
between genes and diseases from the LOD cloud, in particular from Linked Life
Data and Bio2RDF, forming the triples (Gene, related to, Disease). In total,
we considered 2462 genes and 331 diseases. We retrieved textual information
describing genes and diseases from corresponding text elds in Linked Life Data
and Bio2RDF.
        </p>
        <p>We have 49801621 potential interaction terms which we reduced to 1132
by using a fast feature selection procedure evaluating the Pearson correlation
between targets and interaction term.</p>
        <p>Figure 4 (left) shows the results for predicting diseases for genes. Our
proposed model gives very good results, although the reference model is slightly
stronger. Figure 4 (right) shows the results for predicting genes for diseases. Due
to sparsity, this task is more di cult and our proposed model performs best.
We used 943 users and 1600 movies from the MovieLens data set5 and evaluated
if a user has seen a movie or not. 99 user attributes were derived from age (5
classes), gender (2 classes), occupation (21 classes), and the rst two digits of
the ZIP code. The 89 movie attributes were derived from genre, release month
and release year. Figure 5 (left) shows the results. Although the attribute
information on the movies and the users have predictive power (signi cantly above
random), a model exploiting intrarelational correlations (MCF) gives very good
performance and the proposed model and the reference model cannot improve
beyond the performance of MCF. As in the experiment on the synthetic data,</p>
        <sec id="sec-6-2-1">
          <title>5 http://www.grouplens.org/node/73</title>
          <p>there is information in the contextual data but this information is also
represented in MCF. We have 8811 potential interaction terms which we reduced to
200 by using a fast feature selection procedure evaluating the Pearson correlation
between targets and interaction term.
We used the BookCrossing data set6 to predict if a user rated a book. The
data set consisted of 105283 users and 340554 books. A user is described by
5849 attributes (derived from age and city, province and country) and a book is
described by 24508 attributes (authors, publication year, publisher). The goal is
to predict if a user would rate (i.e., read) a book. The results in Figure 5 (right)
show that the proposed modeling approach gives best results.
7</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Conclusions</title>
      <p>We have presented a general framework for predicting links in multirelational
graphs. We showed that e cient learning can be achieved using an alternating
least squares approach.</p>
      <sec id="sec-7-1">
        <title>6 http://www.bookcrossing.com</title>
        <p>
          The approach can be extended in several directions. First, for the entries in
the relational adjacency matrices one can use real numbers, e.g., between zero
and one, and the user can represent the certainty that a triple is true [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ]. Second,
we can exploit deductive reasoning by calculating the deductive closure prior
to learning [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ]. Third, the prediction in Equation 1 can be applied recursively
permitting global information ow through the relational graph. Finally, we can
easily generalize to entities not in the training set, either by using Equations 3
to 5 directly or by transforming these equations into appropriate equivalent
forms.
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>Appendix</title>
      <p>We only derive Equation 3. The derivations for Equations 4 and 5 are equivalent. We
start with the regularizes least squares solution for estimating X^ ( W ) based on M</p>
      <p>M W = M (M T M + W I) 1M T X^ ( W )
If we use the low-rank approximation M</p>
      <p>UrDrVrT , where Dr = diag fdigir=1, we get</p>
      <p>M W = UrDrVrT (VrDrUrT UrDrVrT + W I) 1VrDrUrT X^ ( W )
= Ur diag</p>
      <p>di2 r
di2 + W i=1</p>
      <p>UrT X^ ( W ) = X^ ( W )Vr diag</p>
      <p>di2 r
di2 + W i=1</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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