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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>April</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Exploring Real-Time Temporal Query Auto-Completion</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Stewart Whiting</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>James McMinn</string-name>
          <email>mcminn@dcs.gla.ac.uk</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Joemon M. Jose</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>School of Computing Science University of Glasgow Scotland</institution>
          ,
          <country country="UK">UK</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2013</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>26</volume>
      <issue>2013</issue>
      <fpage>4</fpage>
      <lpage>7</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>Query auto-completion (QAC) is a common interactive feature for assisting users during query formulation. Following each query input keystroke, QAC suggests queries prefixed by the input characters; allowing the user to avoid further cognitive and physical effort if any are acceptable. To rank suggestions, QAC approaches typically aggregate past query popularity to determine the likelihood of a query being used again. Hence, QAC is usually very effective for consistently popular queries. However, as the web becomes increasingly real-time, more people are turning to search engines to find out about unpredictable emerging and ongoing events and phenomena. QAC approaches reliant on aggregating long-term historic query-logs are not sensitive to very recent real-time events, because newly popular queries will be outweighed by long-term popular queries, especially for less-specific prefix lengths (e.g. 2 or 3 characters). We explore limiting the aggregation period of past querylog evidence to increase the temporal sensitivity of QAC. We vary the query-log aggregation period between 2 and 14 days, for prefix lengths of 2 to 5 characters. Experimentation simulates a realtime environment using openly available MSN and AOL query-log datasets. Analysis indicates a linear relationship between prefix length and QAC performance when using different query-log aggregation periods. In particular, we find QAC for shorter prefix lengths is optimal when a shorter query-log aggregation period is used, and vice-versa, longer prefix lengths benefit from a longer query-log aggregation period.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>INTRODUCTION</title>
      <p>
        For users, cognitively formulating and physically typing queries
is a time-consuming and error prone process. As such, query
autocompletion (QAC) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref3">3, 10</xref>
        ] has been widely adopted by major web
search engines to reduce the effort necessary to submit a query.
      </p>
      <p>As a user types their query into the search box, QAC attempts
to predict the completed query the user may have in mind.
Following each query input keystroke, QAC suggests possible queries
(which we refer to as completion suggestions) beginning with the
already input character sequence (i.e. prefix). The goal for effective
QAC is to present the user’s intended query after the least possible
keystrokes, and at the highest rank in the list of completion
suggestions.</p>
      <p>
        Conventional QAC approaches rank completion suggestions by
aggregating their popularity in past query-logs. Further work has
incorporated personal contextual features for short prefixes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ] and
time-series modelling of temporal trends [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. However, with
enough past evidence, completion suggestions ranked solely by
their popularity in past query-logs provides reasonably effective
QAC [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref3">3, 10</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Figure 1 illustrates the ten completion suggestions offered by
Google for the three character query prefix ‘hur’ on November 8th,
2012. The list of query suggestions indicates the historically most
likely queries to be submitted with the given prefix, possibly in the
context of some undisclosed ranking features such as geo-location
or the user’s past queries. Despite the recency and prominence of
Hurricane Sandy, the query ranks very low in the completion
suggestions, while ‘hurricane isaac’ ranks first, regardless that it
occurred many months previously. Aside from this issue, QAC for
short and unspecific prefixes (i.e. 1 or 2 common characters) is
often unsuccessful as there are usually a huge number of possible
completion suggestions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. Consequently, it is typically long-term
‘head’ queries that are suggested as completions for such short
prefixes.
      </p>
      <p>
        With the web increasingly becoming a platform for real-time
news and media, time plays a central role in information
interaction. A substantial volume of daily top queries are the result of
users turning to search engines for up-to-date information about
very recent or ongoing events [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref6">2, 6</xref>
        ]. 15% of the daily queries to
an industrial web search engine have never been seen before1; a
substantial proportion of these queries may be attributed to
realtime events and phenomena, rather than the long-tail of very
uncommon queries. Similarly, previously unpopular queries may
suddenly become extremely popular because of recent developments.
It is therefore important that QAC supports queries which become
highly popular only during brief periods of time, which we refer to
as real-time temporal queries.
1http://www.google.com/competition/howgooglesearchworks.html
Although the common approach to QAC is to rank completion
suggestions by their popularity in the historic query-log (i.e. past
query-log evidence), there has been very little study on the
aggregation period necessary to achieve optimal QAC effectiveness, and
whether this varies for each prefix length [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. Thus, the objective
of this paper is to investigate this uncertainty by conducting
experiments based upon the AOL and MSN query-log datasets. For each
prefix length we use an N day sliding window of past query-log
evidence to rank completion suggestions, hence making QAC more
sensitive to real-time querying distribution changes. We present
results and observe overall QAC effectiveness for different periods of
N days, at prefix lengths of 2 to 5 characters.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>MOTIVATION</title>
      <p>
        As time undoubtedly plays a central role in user search behaviour
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ], it is important for QAC to suggest completions that become
highly popular over very short periods (i.e. real-time temporal
queries), while also supporting always popular ’head’ queries.
      </p>
      <p>Relying on a long period of past query-log evidence will ensure
QAC is robust for continually popular queries, however, it will also
have the effect of smoothing over short-term popular queries. For
example, imagine a scenario where query q1 is consistently
popular, appearing 1000 times each day in the query-log. Aggregating
query popularity over a past 30 day period would mean that query
q2 which is popular only today would need to be appear 30,000
times before it outweighed the long-term popular query in a
probabilistic QAC approach. At the same time, reducing the aggregation
period may mean the long-term popular query q1 is not adequately
represented, allowing short-term noise to reduce its ranking.</p>
      <p>Ultimately, developing an effective QAC system that can
respond to real-time temporal trends is a trade-off between
robustness and sensitivity. In this paper we aim to study this trade-off
in terms of how much past query-log evidence is optimal for
aggregating query popularity, and how this changes for each prefix
length. Moreover, as there has been little experimentation on open
datasets, this work establishes baseline QAC performance for
further studies.</p>
      <p>
        The effectiveness of using a shorter query-log evidence
aggregation period has been noted previously, particularly for real-time
temporal queries [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. While time-series modelling for query
trends is able to improve QAC for recurring predictable temporal
trends, for short-term real-time temporal queries it often proved
problematic due to lag and over-fitting [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. Time-series models
were not able to model the increasing trend quickly enough, and
likewise, continued to predict increased popularity for some time
after the brief period of actual popularity.
2.1
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Temporal Query-log Analysis</title>
      <p>We quantify the extent to which the query-logs are composed of
real-time temporal querying, in order to determine the degree to
which QAC must support this behaviour. We define real-time
temporal queries as those which appear as a ‘spike’ - with the vast
majority of their occurrence within a short period, e.g. hours to days.
Similarly, the queries are unlikely to have been recently popular, or
even seen previously.</p>
      <p>
        We analyse the temporal trends contained in two publicly
available2 datasets: the AOL [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ] and MSN [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ] query-log datasets.
Extensive temporal analysis of longer-term and larger proprietary
query-log data has been performed previously by others [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref4 ref6">6, 4, 2</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>The AOL query-log contains 36.3M user interactions over a 3
2MSN available on request. We justify our use of AOL as we study the data without
identifying individuals.
month period from the 1st March 2006 to the 31st May 2006. The
MSN query-log contains almost 14.9M user interactions over a 1
month period from the 1st May 2006 to the 31st May 2006.</p>
      <p>Query-log entries necessary for identifying result clicks were
removed. By extracting all the unique query and timestamp
combinations, we obtained only queries directly typed by users.
Navigational queries containing the URL substrings: .com, .net, .org,
http, .edu or www were removed. We were left with 21.8M and
12.2M queries for AOL and MSN, respectively. Preliminary
analysis discovered a sizeable number of short bursts of what we suspect
is bot spamming activity in the AOL query-logs. Generic queries
such as ‘personalfinance’, ‘aolcelebrity’, ‘computercheckup’,
appear in high volume with very uniform spacing (e.g. every 30 or
60 seconds). We manually observed and removed around 10,000
instances of these queries from our analysis.</p>
      <p>Volume of Queries
Window Size (Days)
1
3
5</p>
      <p>AOL
9.2%
10.1%
10.4%</p>
      <p>MSN
3.5%
4.5%
5.1%</p>
      <p>In Table 1 we present the volume of queries (i.e. % of the total
queries submitted in the query-log) which occur four or more times,
and have at least 80% of their use concentrated within a period of N
days. In AOL, the most popular 1 to 5 day highly temporal queries
include: ‘amelia earhart pictures’, ‘karl der grosse’, ‘the
simpsons live action’ and ‘leisure suit larry’. Likewise, in MSN among
the most popular are: ‘stephen colbert’, ‘poison milk’, ‘ohio bear
attack’ and ‘kimberley dozier’. Investigation shows that many of
these queries describe, or are strongly related to significant events.</p>
      <p>These results suggest a reasonable volume of real-time temporal
queries in both query-logs, at least in the relatively short periods
we are able to study. We suspect that the percentage of real-time
temporal queries will have substantially increased in more recent
query-logs, given the increase in real-time media available on the
internet.
3.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>RELATED WORK</title>
      <p>The majority of research has concentrated on the inherent
engineering complexity of providing efficient and scalable QAC, which
is resilient to typing errors. There have been relatively few
studies on improving QAC effectiveness in search engines; likely due
to the fact that there are few suitable query-logs available outside
industrial search engine companies for experimentation.</p>
      <p>
        Exploiting the user’s personal context, and past query sessions
has led to considerable QAC improvement, especially for shorter
prefixes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref8">3, 8</xref>
        ]. Shokouhi and Radinsky [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref9">9, 10</xref>
        ] used time-series
modelling of past temporal query patterns to improve QAC
effectiveness. Popular queries recurring during specific temporal
intervals, such as day/night, day of week, month, etc. were modelled
so that current query popularity could be predicted based on prior
evidence only. Shokouhi and Radinsky [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ] propose the short time
window technique we experiment with in this paper as a baseline
(which they refer to as p1, etc.). They note its relative effectiveness,
particularly for correctly predicting short-term highly temporal and
unpredictable queries for which time-series modelling is
problematic. However, no detailed analysis on the performance impact of
aggregation period for each prefix length is performed.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>AUTO-COMPLETION APPROACH</title>
      <p>
        The common “standard” approach to QAC is Maximum
Likelihood Estimation (MLE), based on past query popularity (i.e. ‘most
popular completion’) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. MLE for a prefix rn (of n characters),
with each query q in all past queries Q prefixed by rn, is formalised
as follows:
      </p>
      <p>MLE(rn) = arg maxP(q)
q2Q
(1)</p>
      <p>P(q) is the probability of the query appearing in the past
querylog. We refer to this method, aggregating all query-log evidence
prior to the current time qt as our baseline MLE-ALL.
4.1</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Limiting Past Query-log Evidence</title>
      <p>We propose using only the last N days of query-log evidence
(e.g., N = 2, 4,7 or 14 days) for computing P(q) at qt (i.e., a sliding
window of past evidence). We refer to this approach as MLE-WN.</p>
      <p>The intuition underlying this approach is that a more recent and
limited period of queries may more accurately reflect the current
query distribution. Similarly, although consistently popular queries
will still be adequately reflected in the distribution, their total
frequency will no longer be great enough to outweigh the frequency
of popular queries that only spike in shorter periods.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>METHODOLOGY</title>
      <p>The objective of our experiment is to study the trade-off between
sensitivity and robustness of QAC, for different prefix lengths. As
such, we explore various query-log aggregation periods for each
prefix length, and measure the effect on overall QAC performance.</p>
      <p>Our experimental methodology simulates a real-time user search
scenario; such that the user types a prefix, and receives
completion suggestions based only on evidence prior to the time of their
query. QAC effectiveness is measured by the presence, and rank of
a ground-truth match for each set of suggestions.</p>
      <p>A time-ordered query-log provides a stream of ground-truth user
queries. We assume that each query present in the query-log is the
result of a user having manually typed it into the search box. As
such, for each prefix of length n of the query, QAC provides
completion suggestions. Each suggestion is matched with the
groundtruth of the user’s actual query (we discuss matching in the
following section).</p>
      <p>
        Evaluation Metric. Similar to past QAC work [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref3">3, 10</xref>
        ], we
rely on Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR) to observe the effectiveness
of each QAC approach. Reciprocal Rank (RR) has typically been
used for evaluation in IR situations where there is a single relevant
document. For a set of completion suggestions S, RR is computed
as:
      </p>
      <p>RR(S; qintended ) =</p>
      <p>1
S; Rank(qintended )
(2)</p>
      <p>If no match for qintended is present, then a RR of 0 is assigned
(avoiding divide by zero errors). MRR is then computed as the
arithmetic average of RR for all queries.</p>
      <p>MRR reflects the user interaction model of QAC; a
higherranked completion suggestion is more beneficial, but the difference
in ordering of lower-ranked completion candidates is less
significant. That is to say, there is less noticeable difference between a
correct completion suggestion ranked at either the 3rd or 4th
position, compared to the 1st or 2nd position. We consider a
literal lower-case string match between completion suggestion and
ground-truth as a successful match.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>EXPERIMENT</title>
      <p>We conduct experimentation using the AOL and MSN query-log
datasets. By experimenting with millions of queries contained in
each query-log, we achieve a representative indication of how each
approach would perform in a real-world setting.</p>
      <p>
        Using two different query-logs validates the approach across two
query samples of varying characteristics, and different user
populations of the two industrial search engines. The exact sampling and
construction of each query-log is unknown. MSN has been filtered
for privacy (e.g. clearing known number patterns, such as phone
numbers), appears to contain fewer adult queries, and is more
indepth as it is only for a one month period. In contrast, the AOL
query-log contains more queries, but has greater breadth as it
covers a three month period. However, as noted in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ], the sampling of
AOL may not be truly representative of normal querying
distributions because of re-finding behaviour.
6.1
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-9">
      <title>Experiment Settings</title>
      <p>We report results in Section 7 for two QAC settings:
MLEALL using all query-log evidence prior to qt (we treat this as the
baseline), and MLE-WN, with 2,4,7 and 14 days of past
querylog (characterising short and medium-term event/evidence
periods). With only sampled query-log datasets, reducing the evidence
period further leads to relatively sparse querying data. To
emulate a real user interface scenario, we assume the user would see 4
highest-ranking completion suggestions for each prefix they input.</p>
      <p>We run each approach for all query prefixes of 2 to 5 characters.
Experiments for each prefix length were run independently, hence
a successful completion suggestion at a prefix of 2 characters had
no effect on the later evaluation for 3 characters.</p>
      <p>Learning Period. We report the MRR of MLE QAC computed
over the period of the query-log, minus the first N days which
we treat as the learning period. Doing this makes the MRR
obtained from MLE-ALL and MLE-WN directly comparable as both
are computed over exactly the same set of queries. In any case,
QAC performance during this early period will be extremely low
as there is very little query popularity evidence (i.e. the ‘cold-start
problem’), and wouldn’t reflect a real-world scenario where a QAC
system would almost always be trained on past evidence.
7.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-10">
      <title>RESULTS</title>
      <p>Table 2 presents the overall MRR observed for MLE QAC
experiments on the AOL and MSN and AOL query-logs; using the
past 2, 4, 7, 14 days as well all past query-log evidence, for prefix
lengths of 2 to 5 characters. The MLE-ALL MRR reported beside
each MLE-WN corresponds to the baseline using all queries prior
to qt , but with the first N days of queries excluded for comparison.</p>
      <p>
        The aggregated statistical power of 21.8M and 12.2M RR
measures (i.e. each query) provided by the AOL and MSN experiments,
respectively, means that the results we report are statistically
significant according to standard t-tests [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. Therefore, our analysis
concentrates on the effect size of each window period over the baseline
- that is, change in MRR over the corresponding MLE-ALL.
      </p>
      <p>
        Firstly, for all runs and both query-logs it is clear that QAC is
considerably more effective with a longer (i.e. more specific)
prefix. This is expected, given that each extra character in the prefix
reduces the space of possible completion suggestions, thus
increasing the chance of a completion suggestion match [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>QAC is almost always more effective for MSN than for AOL,
especially for prefix lengths of 4 or less characters. Using a sliding
window of evidence has a significant effect on overall QAC
performance in almost all cases.</p>
      <p>For AOL there is a sliding window of evidence which can
imr
AOL
MSN
0.090
0.143
0.185
0.217
0.112
0.164
0.197
0.215
prove QAC performance over MLE-ALL for all prefix lengths,
albeit relatively marginally for 5 characters. Using a shorter 2 day
window of evidence improves QAC performance by up to nearly
3% for shorter prefixes of 2 or 3 characters. For a prefix of 4
characters, using a little more evidence, e.g. 4 days is optimal.
Similarly, the best performance for a 5 character prefix is obtained when
using 14 days of evidence.</p>
      <p>For MSN, shorter prefixes (e.g. 2 or 3 characters) can
outperform the baseline when using a window of evidence. Specifically,
we see the best performance improvement of nearly 4.5% when
using 2 days of evidence for a 2 character prefix. However, using
between 2 and 14 days of query-log evidence always impairs QAC
performance compared to the baseline for 4 or 5 character prefixes.
Notably, the detrimental effect on performance is reduced as the
sliding window of evidence is increased.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-11">
      <title>DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION</title>
      <p>
        The baseline QAC performance, and the following sliding
window QAC improvement characteristics for each query-log are
considerably different between the query-logs. AOL QAC is
marginally but consistently improved in almost all cases, whereas
MSN QAC is only improved for shorter prefixes, albeit much more
so than for AOL. This suggests that the two query-logs have
different temporal characteristics. In part, this may be caused by a
couple of factors. Firstly, although AOL has more queries, it is
spread more sparsely over a three month period, in contrast, MSN
queries are concentrated in a 1 month period. Additionally, AOL
has a day of missing data [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ] which will harm QAC effectiveness
following the affected period. Secondly, there may be underlying
demographic differences between users of the two search engines
that lead to changes in query distributions.
      </p>
      <p>Although the performance improvement characteristics for each
prefix and sliding window are different for each query-log, there is
a clear overall linear relationship emerging in the results between
prefix length and optimal sliding window period. As such, QAC for
shorter prefixes performs optimally with a shorter sliding window
of evidence, and conversely, QAC for longer prefixes performs best
with a longer sliding window of evidence.</p>
      <p>
        This relationship probably arises from the uncertainty posed by
short and non-specific prefix lengths [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ], where the space of
possible completion suggestions is large. In these cases, using a
shorterperiod of evidence will still reflect long-term popular queries, but
also be sensitive to temporal variation. Longer prefixes are more
specific and thus narrow possible completion suggestions
considerably. In these cases, real-time temporal factors are probably less
likely to play a significant role in the already reduced set of
possible completion suggestions. Moreover, for less common prefixes
(and therefore rarer queries), relying on a longer query-log period
is more likely to include the evidence necessary to rank them
effectively as they were less likely to be used recently.
      </p>
      <p>Conclusion. In this paper we examined the trade-off between
QAC robustness and real-time temporal sensitivity. We found that
QAC effectiveness can be improved by up to nearly 5%, simply by
selecting the optimal time period of query popularity aggregation
for each prefix length. The period necessary to achieve optimal
QAC effectiveness varies by prefix length; shorter prefixes (e.g.
23 characters) perform best with only short-term evidence (e.g. 2-7
days), whereas longer prefixes (e.g. 4-5 characters) require more
long-term evidence (e.g. 7-14 days, or more). Results also indicate
the need to train per query-log, in order to capture intrinsic
temporal and demographic characteristics. Care must also be taken with
the sampling of queries used for training.</p>
      <p>Further work will experiment with larger, more recent
querylogs and perform cross-validation to verify the preliminary findings
we present in this paper. Moreover, we will investigate alternative
modelling techniques to improve QAC effectiveness for real-time
temporal queries, which are problematic for time-series modelling
as they spike so briefly in time.</p>
      <p>Acknowledgments. This work was partially supported by the
EU LiMoSINe project (288024).</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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