Modern accelerated development man-made production structures let to the development of concentration of harmful emission and their volume in eco-environments (ground, water, atmosphere), also contamination of villages, cities and towns has increased. Complication of technological processes, growth of production capacities of thermal power plants, transportation, oil and gas industry, which includes energy - efficient objects, complicated the process and management, which led to a decrease in certain areas of their level of safety and increased the risk of accidents and catastrophies.
Scattering of socially communicable and technogenic large structures carries a cyclic terminal character and is characterized by time power from month to years. According to the given tasks and the cycle of development and influence of factors on these structures we must coordinate their functional activity taking into account their hierarchical organization. Form their financial resource, information factors on these structures of direction leads to a mismatch of deliberate purposeful management to the emergence of conflicts in and between the system and between them and the risks of the emergence of conflicts in the hierarchy and the risks of emergencies. The level of risks of accidents and man-made catastrophes depends on many systems and factors of system reliability.
Reliability and quality of projects of technogenic systems, model and algorithms of functioning.
Quality of structures, units, components, method of their installation.
Conformity of the constructed structures to the exact requirements, methods of their laying and testing for introduction into the exploitation.
Quality of strategies, algorithms for data processing and management decisions.
Quality of training (engineering, knowledge, practical, etc.) of production and practical personnel, as well as their positive and negative features.
Preparation of resources for the production process and their quality.
The ability to withstand resource and information attacks on a technogenic system.
Ability to withstand information and mental-psychological attacks on operational and management personnel when making management decisions.
All these aspects of risk assessment have both strategic and game character and determine the dynamics of processes in technogenic systems, as well as the level and nature of the impact on the environment.
Substantiate the method of minimizing the risks of the impact of technogenic systems on the eco-environment based on game, system and information technologies.
Research tasks: to solve the given problem we need to find the solution of the given tasks and methods: To analyze the problem of minimizing the risks of the impact of techogenic systems on the environment To carry out the analysis of literary sources in which this problem is considered. Justify the methods for solving problems To analyze the causes and factors of emergence of conflict situations, both technical and informative. To develop game models of management strategies. To develop the method of conflict resolution in technogenic systems. To develop the method of structuring of the system and its integration. To justify the system game and the way it is presented. To build a general scheme of interaction of technogenic systems that generate harmful emissions with the ecological and social environment of coordination strategies for eco-protection and technology of deep waste treatment. To justify new man-made characteristics and their nature and impact on the environment. 2
According to the given tasks we are going to made an analysis of the literary sources for last period, which depict the state of the problem of environmental technogenic safety.
In this paper (
In this paper (
In this paper (
In this paper (
This monograph (
In this paper (
In this paper (
In this paper (
Mathematical aspects of constructing model of purposeful behavior of a person at
decision-making and psychology of actions are considered in the collection of works
(
Monograph (
The monograph (
The monograph (
Monographs (
In monographs (
In works (38-39) the concept of creation of regional center for decision-making on ensuring the protection of the population and objects of life support from NPPs, hydraulic structures, earthquakes is substantiated.
In article (40) processes of destabilization of ecological systems under the influence of technogenic structures – pollutants are considered, strategies of sustainable development and process of destruction of mechanical systems and their information interpretation are considered.
In the fundamental work (41-42) the energy theory of stochastic signals is considered as a basis for the analysis of factors and methods of construction of laser systems based on it.
In works (43-46) methods of analysis of dynamics of behavior of complex systems, state control, detection of factors of active destruction of structure of technogenic objects, state control are considered. 3
Causal factors of man-made accidents
Causal factors of man-made accidents are mistakes which were made during designing, limited knowledge of the structure of technological systems and power systems, gaps in understanding information about the dynamics of the destructive processes that may occur during the operation of energy-active objects. Game concept of interaction (active factors – technogenic systems) is the basis for revealing the system, information and energy structure of processes of destruction of technogenic objects due to the imposition of unpredictable factors, which due to the limited knowledge of operators can not be taken into account and, accordingly, to predict.
On the basis of game and system models, as the basic principles of the analysis of the interaction of technogenic, ecological and social systems, it is necessary to build general schemes of hierarchical organization of regional society. The solution of this problem will allow to analyze the available resources for production and vital activity of the person and society, to assess the risks and the likelihood of conflicts in the allocation of resources. This approach which is addressing to the safety of life provides the basis for a thorough analysis of the interconnections of the production complex with resources and the eco-environment, as well as the opportunity to provide deep processing of hazardous waste.
Problematic tasks of management of technogenic systems with the energy-active objects are relevant as in energy, petrochemical industry, aviation, transport and social structures, because the level of pollution of the ecosystem of the regions in which they operate depends on the qualities of strategies for managing resources and objects. To solve the problem of improving the efficiency of production structures, to reduce the level of pollution, it is necessary to form an appropriate level of training of personnel, who would have knowledge of different levels – from technological to presystem information technologies. The solution of this problem will allow to introduce long-term impact of harmless technical emissions in the eco-environment of the region where there are potentially dangerous objects. For system with a hierarchical structure of organization of management characteristic of cognitive system of operational personnel decision – making is the existing gaps in knowledge about the structure of objects, the processes of automatic and operational management, the system of selection and processing of data necessary for making both local and system decisions at the strategic level of the hierarchy, which minimize the risk of accidents due to a clear understanding of emerging crisis situations. 4 4.1
Systematic game of targeted technological structures in boundary models of resource allocation
Systematic game of targeted structures GrCUS1 CUS2 is based on strategies of resource allocation and coordination of management actions and accordingly occurs at the managerial level according to the objectives of functioning (pic. 1) when fulfilling the conditions of the balance of material and energy resources.
Let’s consider the basic schemes of interaction of participants of paired
information of the game in the structure of technological system. The following structures
of the game participants are set accordingly (
P ference IVF, which has channels of influence on the technological process; – CUS1 CUS2Str – perturbation factor structure of the system CUS2 , as an adversary to the realization of the purpose of functioning (the break of the functional bonds);
– CUS1 CUS2Strat – perturbations of system strategies CUS2 , due to misinformation (in estimating the parameters of state trajectory);
– CUS1 IR CUS2 , IR – the struggle for resources between structures CUS1 and CUS2 (material, energetic, informational, financial);
– ТБi ТБ j | CusStrat U | CТП – resource conflicts and races between technology blocks.
The state of the system is determined by the balance of resources in the research
structure, with effective game strategies in place that determine their distribution
based on load energy – efficient units (
m m ФвRхі U , , jФвPuRхj t, Ф U , , ,t , i1 j1
StratUФR Ci : Ф Іopt zC , zC FZ , t 0 , t 0 де zC V C | R – the target status of the technological system.
MG1T
CUS1 BZ
CUS1 Strat U1 BZ1 CUS2 BZ2
F1 М1 М2 F2 IR MG2T CUS1 BZ1 CUS2 BZ2
F1 F2 IR
NR IR F1 F2 ) ttra ,F21 S (F
U G1 F G2 F G2 F M3GT
M4GT
el of conflict and distribution of material and energetic recourses, MGn – a strategy of
reconciliation of interests. The overall balance of material resources in the terminal
management decision – making strategy according to the load regime is described by
the behavior of a random process trajectory model, which is formed on the basis of
interaction in the technological structure of local components of resource flows and
reflects the dynamic state of the system through the trajectory of balance dynamics in
the form of information situation functioning. Structure of target space is determined
by the procedure (strategy) for solving the problem, models of state space and phase
of the control object and its energy characteristics interconnected through isomorphic
operators of object dynamics. Based on the study of the situational behavior of the
level of the trajectory of the state OU, when the conditions of the balance of resources
are fulfilled the procedures of classification of possible states of objects of
management and the strategies of movement to the goal are formed (
For impulse flows, the state trajectory model is determined on the basis of dynamics modeling according to the equation of (nonlinear) balance of resources, relative to the region of stable equilibrium, in the conditions of disturbances and constraints on resources:
tTn m m GRAF Z t | Tn Z0 AZФ t, Фвх t,Ui Фвuх t, dt t i1 j1 according to game models on two competing systems. 4.2
Dynamics of game flows and flows and balance strategies
For each participant who will take part in the game, like an intellectual
system, that makes decisions which are directed to achieve the goal, a characteristic
feature is the way to formulate management strategies based on the possible behavior of
a competitor, based on the equations of dynamics that describe the behavior of players
in the target space, both each player and in common. The dynamics of player
interaction is determined by the joint solution of the system of equations over the interval of
time (Tn) according to the distribution of available resources and goals (
The introduction of such a division of classes makes it possible to form the
principles of synthesis of local and global behavior strategies based on the behavior of
methods of their resource and situational management D. Pospelova (
Player P1 P2 Player
GSS3 OIS1 ZI1 RS U1 Strat (U1*U2) Р1 Ids1 Fі1
ZI2 GSS3 OIS2 RS U2 Strat (U1*U2) Р2 Ids2 Fі2
BZk
GUS2
FО Str US2 BZR2
CIS2
Strat U/C2 OC2
LIR Fm2
FiR2 IA'
IAn TP
NR2
Where OISi – observational information systems; Idsi – images of the dynamic situation in the object of the game; FRi – factors of influence on resources; IAi – informational atacks; GRSmi – global resource delivery systems; P1, P2 – players; ZI – zones of interaction; FG1,2 – field of game; GSS3 – generation of sounding signals for data collection; RSi – resource steams; BLRi – base of logical rules; Fip – factors affecting resource and information flows; OC – object control; TP – technological process.
Methodology and systemology for analyzing the dynamics of the trajectory of the technological system, based on equations of the balance of resources, is based on the methods of parametric and non-parametric statistics; decision theory in uncertainty; of estimations of statistics on the membership of images of dynamic situations in the present time to alternative classes of reference models of state space partitioning. Each class is matched by local decision-making strategies (which are elements of global politics), which allows the management team to move the system to the target area, that is to describe the procedure for solving the problem of resource allocation in the target space of the system and avoiding conflicts. 4.3
Adaptation and coordination of management strategies
In the case of a situation where the target problem is not solved, procedures (if
available) are formed to adapt the strategies to achieve the goal of disturbance and
interference, based on the additional study of the problem. This requires the creation of a new
model of the problem and the target situation in the technological structure, the
assessment of available resources, which leads to a change in the trajectory of
movement and terminal time (
Synthesis of goal achievement strategies in a feedback management system, is based on refining the goal model and how to implement it with limited resources, as procedures of solving the goal.
Synthesis of behavior of the system, with a given structure of the conditions of perturbations and large-scale interference is based on the use of typical models of strategies to achieve goals, which are reflected through the lanes of the direction of possible trajectories in the target area. Estimation of threshold pollution, which lead to technological failure due to distortion of information on the state of the system in the mode of situation estimation and decision making, is the basis for the choice of cases of algorithms for signal processing with robust properties. Synthesis of strategies for correction of models and parameters of the system in the evolution of the control and control system is based on methods and procedures, algorithms for solving the target problem, which are verified by classes of reference solutions of problems.
Efficient estimation of strong obstacles and correction of optimal algorithms for signal processing and ensuring their robustness, as well as adequate filtering from obstacles from the point of view of obtaining the correct information for forming the image of the situation in the target space are the basis of decision making in the condition of uncertainty of the dynamic situation with respect to the target. Correction of data processing algorithms for dynamic pattern formation is based on procedures for evaluating the behavior of quality functionals in perturbation zones.
Correction of management object models and goal achievement strategies is carried out(in crisis conditions) based on the availability of problem of problem solving procedures, which requires a series of procedures [30-33].
Verification of conditions of achievement of goals and estimation of means and volumes of resources;
Assessment of availability and mobility of resources for the implementation of objectives in critical conditions;
Adjustments to target entry strategies and availability of resources at the time of conflict.
Optimization of the crisis management of the system is carried out taking into
account knowledge of the structure, dynamics and purpose of the system and is based on
the formation of quality functional, components of which will be indicator functions
of saving resources, terminal time to achieve the goal, accuracy of maintaining the
functional state. Optimization of signal processing algorithms and control strategies
for each game participant in the technological structure is carried out based on the
structure of the target task to study the statistical characteristics of the signal
trajectory and interference, as well as on basis of checking the correspondence of signal
models to the processing algorithms, the conditions for ensuring their robustness and
information are fulfilled, subject to coordination of resource sharing strategies (
GR IRm
GSUТП dSytP ZТП Х
FR SV
TS
AТП Strat U NR ZR Strat NS FM1,G1 FM n ,Gn
Where, TS – a technological system as a zone of interaction; G0 – player, who depicts perturbation factors of the flow of resources; GK – perturbation of informational channels; GR – model of source of resources, which provides a technological process; {G1…Gn/Fn} – forming machines (operated by third party operator); {GSUТП/Strat U, Strat NS} – process control system, as a coordinator of the guaranteed balance allocation mode with the selected class of observation and management strategies aligned with the target.
The problem of solving conflict situations in technological structures, with the interaction of active and passive participants in the game, requires for its solution the creation of a complex of conceptual models, a well-organized intellectual knowledge base, containing blocks of interconnected models of structure and dynamics of control and optimization strategies. Models of synthesis procedures of automated process control system and on their basis synthesis of conceptual model of technological structure, its parameterization with respect to the target space of states, determination of boundary and emergency models. These parametrized conceptual models are tested on stability according to Liapunov theory under the influence of perturbations with standard probabilistic characteristics [7-11, 28-37].
The set of requirements for accuracy and stability of automated process control system and the estimation of the parameters of the response to the perturbation determine the degree of roughness and are the informational basis for the synthesis of Model 2.
ZT , ZT , ZT , ZT robust algorithms for detecting and processing signals, that circulate in information channels of automated control system. This concept is the basis for the synthesis of conflict-free strategies for resource allocation and information support [28-34].
Having constructed on the basis of a conceptual model СМ SUТП В2 – a control system of i-class which is defined by an algorithm of the solution of a problem target task of a parametric model [28-34]. For this we need to build the next components of the system:
Model 1. SSZ – State space at intervals:
– Phase space with a set of Liapunov’s stability IR ZU , Z0, ZU Im Zmax , Zmax I A Z , Z
A A
– Aerial areas. ФП ZТП , ZТП – Normal mode; – Allowable emissions; Model 3.
ПCds ZˆТ / Tn
– Target spaceIZ RT CUi terminal basis control regions
dynamic mode that determine the area of operation under the action of perturbations and changes in the intensity of flows FR1 , FRn on the control machines; Z
0 SR : cycle CUi based on the resource balance model relative to the equilibrium state DS
t m ZˆТП t / Tn Z0 t0 AТП Z , Z ,t, , Fвх U ,t, i1 Fвих t, , dt Z t .
Model 4. Model of choice of game space and dynamic description of situations when performing control actions.
The model of the game 4 space is formed on the basis of the compression of the parameters of the terminal time(cycles), the intervals of the parameters(L1) in the boundary mode, the target region, then.
Tgi , I , Ln , Lg , LA, Lm gr S Tgi I Gr CUS1 CUS2 Sz – model of the game on Sz .
According to the purpose of the task, we can model the behavior of the trajectory of the TS, which reflects the change in the level of the mode and the state during the action of disturbances on the resource flows and information channels.
Accordingly, the strategy of game behavior in the region of the location of industrial technogenic systems depends both on the quality of waste disposal of each structure in particular, and on the level of eco-control and policy and administrative parameters. In non-constructive conflict behavior, the risks are heightened, which can lead to a man-made catastrophe with the emission of harmful substances in the absence of infrastructure for their deep processing and disposal (pic. 4).
The structure of harmful products depends on the type of coal fuel, the depth
of processing, cleaning and grinding. The degree of grinding of coal dust provides
high-quality combustion of (
The scheme of formation of risk of influence of harmful products on the ecosystem reflects the hierarchy of the game which includes the following components [36]: – PTSi – production technological system; – SNR – sources of natural resources (energy, air, water, etc.); – SІ and Е – social infrastructure and the environment; – SA – the system of assistants in the structure of the eco-monitoring system (SEМ);
– SALTES – the system for assessing the level of technological and environmental safety; – SAS – state administrative structure that develops coordinating strategies BTCi / i n for industrial complexes of productive technogenic systems; – SISS – system infrastructure of life support of society (population).
To find the necessary vehicle control strategy, it is necessary to simulate in perturbations and play the game in the state spaces, goals, resources on the model for different perturbation classes, determine on the basis of the interval Liapunov`s region in phase space, and beyond them – the parameters of the strategy correction (pic. 4).
processing PТS1 PТS2 PТS3 ... PТSn
{ТSi} SЕМ
processing
to minimize risk
The analysis of the problematic situation of the interaction of technogenic and ecological systems with the aim of reducing the risks of harmful effects on the environment, based on the integration of gaming system and information technologies, showed that improving the efficiency of TPP operation is possible due to the modernization of power units, methods of preparation of fuel, improving the efficiency of fractions combustion, optimization and coordination of operation of power unit models with other energy sources. 7