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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Towards a Unified Vessel Trafic Flow Forecasting Framework</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Petros Mandalis</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Eva Chondrodima</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Yannis Kontoulis</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Nikos Pelekis</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Yannis Theodoridis</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Informatics, University of Piraeus</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Piraeus</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="GR">Greece</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Department of Statistics and Insurance Science, University of Piraeus</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Piraeus</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="GR">Greece</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Vessel Trafic Flow Forecasting (VTFF) is vital for maritime harbor supervision, safety management and collision avoidance. Previous works approach the VTFF problem from two diferent perspectives: a) directly - by predicting the future trafic based on sequence analysis of historical trafic flow,and b) indirectly - by estimating the future trafic based on future vessel locations produced by vessel route forecasting algorithms. In this work, we introduce the Unified Approach for VTFF (UA-VTFF) method by taking advantage of both the indirect and direct paradigms. Our method, in order to predict the future vessel trafic flow in a time horizon of up to 30 min for a specific space, utilizes the results of the indirect paradigm by feeding them into a model that approaches the VTFF problem directly. UA-VTFF is validated over real Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and compared to baseline methods with quite promising results.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;Machine Learning</kwd>
        <kwd>Maritime data</kwd>
        <kwd>Neural Networks</kwd>
        <kwd>Vessel Route Forecasting</kwd>
        <kwd>Vessel Trafic Flow Forecasting</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6">5, 6</xref>
        ]. Monitoring and analysing vessel trafic assists in
understanding vessels’ navigation patterns [7] and, as
In the maritime domain, it is vital to ensure safe and a result, managing maritime trafic [ 8]. In order to
imeficient sailing as the trafic on the waterways increases prove maritime trafic management and, at the same time,
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. Vessel Trafic Flow Forecasting (VTFF) is important collision avoidance, future vessel trafic flow prediction
in the maritime field. For instance, forecasting vessel methods were introduced [9].
lfows is crucial for the maritime industry to plan fleet In the literature, the most promising methods used in
routes and for maritime authorities to manage safety and predicting vessel trafic flow mainly employ grid-based
assist efective collision avoidance. representation analysis [10], which approach the VTFF
      </p>
      <p>
        Maritime tracfi information systems can monitor ves- problem from two diferent perspectives [ 11]: a)
indisel trafic in sea waters. Although such commercial sys- rect - as a Vessel Route Forecasting (VRF) application
tems often provide proactive trafic management, their via employing predicted vessels locations in the future,
forecasting capability is based mainly on linear predic- and b) direct - as a flow sequence forecasting problem.
tion methods [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ], controlled mostly by domain experts. In [11] a comparative analysis between the indirect and
Also, on the one hand, linear prediction methods are fast direct cases was presented, and both strategies eficiently
and robust when vessels stably sail in straight track, but forecasted the trafic flow in the maritime area in a short
on the other hand, they are unreliable, as they lack the de- time horizon (up to ∆  = 15min.) and a spatial
granusired accuracy when vessels are in a maneuvering phase larity ranging from 5km to 15km. However, in order to
(changes on their course and/or speed) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]. assist efective management of sea safety and collision
      </p>
      <p>
        Over the last decade, Machine Learning (ML) based avoidance [12], a longer prediction time horizon in finer
techniques have attracted research interest to develop granularity is necessary.
trafic-related models for the maritime industry as ML In the indirect VTFF case, it is obvious that the
methods are very efective in modeling nonlinear plants method’s performance depends on the prediction
per[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ][
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. An advanced monitoring system is presented in formance of the underlying VRF method. The
underlyProceedings of the Workshop on Big Mobility Data Analytics (BMDA) ing VRF method that was used in [11] was presented in
co-located with EDBT/ICDT 2023 Joint Conference (March 28-31, 2023), [13], which operates as a multipoint location forecasting
Ioannina, Greece model. As a result, in order to predict r future points, the
* Corresponding author. time needed for VRF model execution is multiplied by
† These authors contributed equally. r. However, for collision avoidance purposes, fast
execu($E. pCmhaonnddarolids@imuan);i piki.ognrt(oPu. lMis @anudnailpisi).g;rev(Yac.hKoonn@touunliisp)i;.gr tion times are necessary. Hence, in order to increase the
npelekis@unipi.gr (N. Pelekis); ytheod@unipi.gr (Y. Theodoridis) prediction time horizon and decrease the execution times,
© 2023 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License a novel VRF method is introduced in this work, which is
CPWrEooUrckReshdoinpgs IhStpN:/c1e6u1r3-w-0s.o7r3g ACttEribUutRion W4.0oInrtekrnsahtioonpal (PCCroBYce4.0e).dings (CEUR-WS.org)
able to predict r future points in a single execution. ing similar trafic patterns as a reference for estimating
      </p>
      <p>In the direct VTFF case, the method’s performance future trafic. They employed seasonal autoregressive
depends on the feature vector included in the sequential integrated moving average (SARIMA) and NN models to
forecasting model. The ML algorithms that were imple- predict long-term container vessel trafic at the whole
mented in [11] focused on the trafic of each spatial grid area of the Rajaee port in Iran. The experimental results
cell on previous timestamps disregarding the trafic that showed that the NN outperforms the SARIMA models.
occurs in neighbor-surrounding grid cells on previous In [24] a combined prediction framework based on
timestamps. Hence, in this work we enhance the feature wavelet decomposition and deep NNs was introduced
vector by adding new features, such as characteristics for predicting vessel trafic flow with time frame interval
derived from neighbor-surrounding grid cells and the equal to three hours. The method was applied to trafic
time characteristics of trafic flow. lfow data derived during July 2017 from the Caofeidian</p>
      <p>More importantly, UA-VTFF unifies the direct and in- Port bounded by parallels 38.76°N and 39.21°N, and by
direct VTFF cases by utilizing the results of the proposed meridians 118.16°W and 118.79°W; i.e. the tested area
VRF method within the abovementioned feature vector was about 50km x 55km.
analysis, i.e. this feature vector analysis is applied to Wang et al. [25] presented the DWT-Prophet, a hybrid
the available historical vessel flows and at the same time prediction model for vessel trafic flow that combines the
to the future vessel locations produced by the proposed discrete wavelet decomposition and the Prophet
frameVRF method. The trafic flows resulting by the proposed work; data were decomposed into an approximate
compofeature vector analysis are being fed to an ML method, nent and several high-frequency components by wavelet
which is being trained appropriately in order to predict decomposition, and then the Prophet framework was
the future vessel trafic flow up to 30 min. We experiment trained to predict every component. This method was
with diferent ML methods, such as XgBoost [ 14][15], Au- tested on vessel trafic flow data during January 2018 of
toregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models the whole area of Wuhan Port Yangtze River Bridge.
[16][17], Facebook Prophet [18], and Neural Networks In [26] a multimodal learning method named
Prophet(NNs) [19] (static [20] and dynamic [13]). and-GRU was proposed for vessel trafic prediction,</p>
      <p>In summary, this work builds upon our previous work which focuses on predictions with time interval within an
presented in [11] and substantially improves it in terms hour. This method is based on a Prophet model to
decomof accuracy on smaller sea areas and prediction horizon pose trafic flow sequence into components of diferent
(from 15 min. to 30 min.). periods and on Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) to make
ac</p>
      <p>The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 curate forecasts. For evaluation purposes, a dataset was
discusses related work; Section 3 provides background employed that includes vessel trafic every 30 min in
Xiand preliminary terms; Section 4 presents the proposed azhimen channel, Ningbo-Zhoushan Port during March
unified VTFF methodology; Section 5 describes the avail- 2020. Also, the observation rectangle is of length and
able AIS data, presents the experimental setup, and dis- width equal to 3.19 and 1.04 nautical miles, respectively.
cusses the results of our experimental study; Section 6 Rong et al. [27] presented an approach for
forecastconcludes the paper and discusses future extensions. ing long-term maritime trafic that takes into account
vessel destination prediction (by using a Multinomial
Logistic Regression model) and trajectory prediction (by
2. Related Work using Gaussian Process) within a certain route. The
aggregation of all ships’ positions predictions results in a
Research on ML models has created impressive achieve- probabilistic picture of the future maritime trafic
characments in the past few years [21]. A number of studies teristics and hotspot areas. The method was tested on an
covering VTFF problem have been published in the rel- area near the coast of Portugal (bounded by parallels 36°N
evant literature. We briefly present the relevant works and 42°N, and by meridians 7°W and 11°W), which was
during the last two years, while an overview of less recent divided into four trafic-groups. According to the authors
related works can be found in [11]. their model cannot be used for collision avoidance.</p>
      <p>Li and Ren [22] introduced a multi-step vessel traf- In [28], Xu and Zhang proposed a method for
forecastifc flow prediction method based on a Long Short-Term ing trafic volume in wind farm locations based on
PearMemory Encoder-Decoder architecture. Also, they pro- son’s Correlation Coeficient (PCC) and on GRU model.
posed a statistical approach of vessel trafic flow based on The GRU model takes as input the spatial impacts of
AIS data. This method was tested on trafic flow during vessel trafic flow on diferent routes. To verify model’s
April 2019 of the Liuhe Waterway in the Jiangsu section efectiveness and feasibility, the wind farm water area
of the Yangtze River; this area is about 9km x 11km. in Jiangsu Province was selected, where 11 observation</p>
      <p>Gargari et.al. [23] presented an approach for long-term sections were chosen; if a ship passes through the
obsertrafic forecasting on a container port based on learn- vation section, the trafic volume increases by 1.</p>
      <p>Based on the literature review in [11] and the
abovementioned research works, we can conclude that
valuable knowledge from vessels’ behaviour can be extracted
through the analysis of historical data. However, these
works focused on specific places of maritime interest
and/or quite big areas that cannot assist efective
collision avoidance. Also, most of these works are based
on specific VTFF strategies (direct or indirect). On
the other hand, in our work we propose the UA-VTFF
method, which takes advantage both the indirect and
direct paradigms and is capable of predicting trafic flow
in open sea and at the same time in smaller sea areas.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>3. Background and Definitions</title>
      <p>In this section, background and preliminary terms are
provided. The main definitions employed in this paper
are as follows: Consider a maritime dataset  composed
of  vessels, where the -th vessel consists of 
trajectories and the -th trajectory is comprised of 
timestamped positions (sampled at asynchronous time
intervals) and can be represented as follows:</p>
      <p>P = [︀ p(1), ..., p()]︀ =
︀[ [(1), o(1)], ..., [ (), o ()]]︀ ,
 
(1)
 = 1, ..., ,  = 1, ..., 
where p is a timestamped position, which consists of
timestamp  and location o(, ) in the Universal
Transverse Mercator (UTM) system.</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Definition 1. Route Forecasting:</title>
        <p>• Given:
– a set of vessel trajectories D,
– a vessel’s trajectory [p(1), . . . , p(′)]
consisting of ′ consecutive points,
︀[ o(′ + 1), ..., o(′ + )]︀
(2)</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Definition 2. Trafic Flow Forecasting :</title>
        <p>• Given:
– a time duration (prediction horizon) ∆ ,
– a number of temporal transitions ,
– a set of vessel trajectories D spanning in
Ds (minimum bounding box of locations)
in space and  in time,
– a set of future vessel trajectories 
spanning in Ds and  ∪ ∆ ,
– a spatiotemporal (i.e., 3D) grid that splits
a) Ds into grid cells of resolution  × ,
and b)  ∪ ∆  into  time frames
• Predict: the volume of vessels in each cell of the
spatiotemporal grid.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>4. Methodology</title>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>In this section, our approach is presented including the</title>
        <p>enhanced VRF model and the UA-VTFF methodology. An
overview of the proposed methodology is illustrated in
Fig. 2. More specifically, first, historical AIS data pass
through processing operations. Then the VRF method
is applied. The processed historical data along with the
produced points of the VRF are arranged into a
spatiotemporal grid. Subsequently, the resulting trafic flows pass
through a feature vector analysis, which are then fed to
an ML method for VTFF prediction purposes.
4.1. The enhanced VRF model
In this work, we consider the VRF problem as a direct
trajectory forecasting problem. More specifically, in
order to train the model, the output data are interpolated
on the trajectory’s  transitions. Also, the NN consists
of  * 2 outputs, where for one predicted point, there are
necessary two neurons for the two coordinates for space
and, as a result, each pair of output neurons gives one
forecast for each trajectory’s transition. Thus, after the (described in the previous section) in order to predict the
training procedure, we need to execute the NN model future trajectories. Subsequently, the vessels’ historical
only one time in order to produce the desired predictions. and future trajectories are assigned into the
spatiotem</p>
        <p>As far as the input information is concerned, three poral grid (presented in Section 3) and the calculation of
features are given including information regarding the the amount of vessels that are placed in every grid cell is
time and the two space coordinates, actually the dif- performed. The resulting amounts indicate the volume
ferences in time and space between consecutive times- of the historical vessels  and the predicted vessels 
tamped positions. More specifically, for each timestep (produced by the proposed VRF model), which represent
 = 1, . . . , − 1, where  is the length of the -th the trafic sequence in a specific cell-region and time
trajectory, the NN is fed with the input vector: frame. Then, these trafic sequences for every grid cell 
are enhanced with additional features, including
infor∆ u() = [︀ ∆ (), ∆ (), ∆ ()]︀ . (3) mation regarding timestamp and the volume of vessels
in surrounding cells. Finally, the produced sequences are</p>
        <p>Regarding the NN architecture it consists of an in- fed to an ML algorithm for predicting the future trafic
put layer of three neurons, a Long Short-Term Memory lfow in the grids, i.e. the vessels’ amount in a particular
(LSTM) [29] hidden layer, a fully-connected hidden layer cell in future time frame ∆ . Fig. 2 presents the above
and an output layer of  * 2 neurons. Also, the model pipeline.
parameters can be updated through the Backward Prop- It should be noted that for training purposes the data
agation Through Time (BPTT) algorithm [30] and the in the output are also processed as the data in the input.
synaptic weights can be optimized according to the Adam More specifically, in order to predict the vessels’ amount
approach [31] in the training set. Overall the NN training in the -th grid cell in the future time frame  + 1, i.e.,
phase is followed by a validation phase and, eventually,
model selection; the use of a validation set results in to produce the model output ˆ+1, the corresponding
measuring the model’s generalization ability. model input +1 for the -th cell within the grid that</p>
        <p>It should be noted that the VRF problem in [11] was comprises  total cells is composed of the following
feaconsidered as a multipoint location forecasting task and tures:
the model presented in [13] was employed for predicting • − , ..., − 1, : the vessels’ amount  in time
the vessel’s future locations. This model (after following frame  in the -th cell grid
the training procedure) needs to be executed  times in • −′ , ..., −′ 1, ′ : the vessels’ amount  in time
order to provide predictions for the  transitions forming frame  in the neighbor-surrounding cell grids ′
the future trajectory. On the other hand, our proposed of -th cell grid
method needs to be executed only one time to produce
the desired trajectory and thus the time prediction
duration significantly decreases, as it will be shown in the
experimental study (in Section 5).
4.2. The Unified Approach for VTFF</p>
        <p>(UA-VTFF)
UA-VTFF method starts by giving the available vessels’
historical trajectories into the proposed VRF algorithm
• −′′ , ..., −′′ 1, ′′ : the vessels’ amount  in
time frame  in the neighbor-surrounding cell
grids with high trafic ′′ of -th cell grid
•  +1: the vessels’ amount produced by the
enhanced VRF in the future time frame  + 1 in the
-th cell grid
•  +′1: the vessels’ amount produced by the
enhanced VRF in the future time frame  + 1 in
the neighbor-surrounding cell grids ′ of -th cell
grid</p>
        <p>•  +′′1: the vessels’ amount produced by the
enhanced VRF in the future time frame  + 1 in the
neighbor-surrounding cell grids with high trafic
′′ of -th cell grid
• − , ..., − 1, : the day of the month</p>
        <p>in each time frame  in the -th cell grid
• − , ..., − 1, : the day of week  in</p>
        <p>each time frame  in the -th cell grid
• − , ..., − 1, : the time of day  in each
time frame  in the -th cell grid
before the final evaluation. In particular, the XgBoost
models were optimized regarding the learning rate, the
minimum leaf size for pruning, the number of features
on a node, and the number of regression trees. Also, the
ARIMA model was optimised regarding the lag order,
the degree of diferencing, and the order of the moving
average by evaluating the Partial Autocorrelation plot,
the Augmented Dickey Fuller test and the
Autocorrelation plots, respectively. Furthermore, the MLP and LSTM
NNs were optimised regarding the hidden layers’ size,
while an early stopping procedure [33] is employed to
prevent the networks from overfitting by using a
validation set. As far as the Facebook Prophet parameterization
is concerned, two parameters were tuned that express
Seasonality variance and Trend variance: Seasonality
Prior Scale influences the seasonality component of the
time series and the values tested ranged from 0.01 (small
influence) to 10 (very high influence); Changepoint Prior
Scale influences the variance of the trend component and
the values tested ranged from 0.05 (underfitting variance)
to 0.5 (overfitting variance).</p>
        <p>Regarding the calculation of the neighbor-surrounding
grid cells and those with high trafic, the neighbor 5. Experimental Study
cells correspond to those cells that surround the
centertargeted. The surrounding grid cells with the highest This section presents the experimental setup, along with
trafic are those with the highest correlation with the the results of the tested ML methods.
center-targeted and are defined based on statistical
analysis and taking into account that these cells should
correspond to regions areas associated with a high risk of 5.1. Experimental setup
accidents [32]. To clarify the above discussion, Fig. 3 illus- All the methods were implemented using Python and the
trates a grid with nearby cells only in space of 7 × 7. The experiments were conducted in a workstation composed
green cell illustrates the central-targeted cell for which a of 64 GB RAM, Intel Core i9-9900KX CPU and GeForce
prediction will take place. The yellow cells correspond to RTX2080Ti GPU.
the neighborhood cells, while the pink cells present the The proposed method was evaluated on real-world AIS
neighborhood cells with high trafic and high correlation data provided by MarineTrafic.com. More specifically,
with the center-targeted. 1,757,440 AIS records received from 2344 diferent vessels</p>
        <p>Several ML techniques were used in this study to tackle of various types sailing during November, 2018, in the
the VTFF problem. Particularly, we employ XgBoost Aegean Sea rectangle bounded by longitude [23...26] and
and ARIMA models, which were trained according to latitude in [36...38].
[11]. Also, we employ Facebook Prophet [18], which is a As far as the parameters of the VTFF problem
formurecently presented forecasting technique inspired by the lation are concerned, we used a spatial grid of  = 2km,
nature of time series predicting at Facebook. a prediction horizon of ∆  = 30min and a number of</p>
        <p>Furthermore, we use static and dynamic NNs. Partic- temporal transitions of  = 6. The produced trafic flow
ularly, for the static NNs, the Multi-Layer Perceptron is as follows: A number of 14,340 cells was created, with
(MLP) architecture was employed composed of two hid- the trafic flow of min, max, median and mean values
den neurons and trained with the Backpropagation algo- equal to 0, 103617, 25, and 120 vessels, respectively. Of
rithm [19]. Regarding the dynamic NNs, LSTM networks the whole grid cells, only 768 cells presented trafic flow
were used composed of an input layer, an LSTM hid- of more than 300 vessels across the entire period, while
den layer, a fully-connected hidden layer and an output 4,000 cells included less than 10 vessels in the whole
pelayer of two neurons. The LSTM-based architecture was riod. The top 10 grid cells have more than 5 vessels on
trained following the same procedure as it was described average every 5 minutes and include more than 300,000
in Section 4.1. vessels in the entire period.</p>
        <p>As far as the model parameterization is concerned, var- It should be noted that we resulted in the
abovemenious characteristics of every model type were taken into tioned parameters ( = 2km, ∆  = 30min and  = 6)
account and adjusted with intermediate observation tests
after experimenting with diferent values of spatial grid’s
resolution (of  equal to 2km, 5 km and 10 km), number
of temporal transitions (of  equal to 3 and 6) and
prediction horizon (of ∆  equal to 15 min. and 30 min.; based
on the tested values of  the overall corresponding time
frames were of 5 min. and 10 min.). We observed that the
UA-VTFF method is aefcted by these parameters. More
specifically, the model predicts better when the spatial
resolution (based on ) is higher and the time frames
(based on  in combination with ∆ ) are bigger, while
the impact of the prediction horizon is limited.</p>
        <p>Regarding the evaluation of the implemented
algorithms, it was performed in the busy grid cells [34], which
correspond to regions with regular navigation and heavy
trafic, with a high risk of accidents [ 32]. Areas with low
vessel density denote a low level of trafic flow
complexity, which implies regular and predictable vessel travel
time sequences [35]. This is also confirmed by the
experimental study in [11], where the ML model predicts
better when there are also non-busy regions; the same
ML model was tested on the whole available cells (there
were cells with zero trafic) and only on the busy ones.</p>
        <p>For all the algorithms, except the indirect VTFF [11],
the corresponding trafic flow sequences of the busy grid
cells are arranged into input and output data, where for
each grid cell, the initial 75% of the trafic flow sequence
is used for the training purpose, whereas the remaining
25% of the trafic flow sequence, except for the last six
observations (corresponding to 30 min.), is organized in
the testing set. Regarding the indirect VTFF, following
[11] the trajectories derived from the busy grid cells are
then arranged into training, validation, and testing sets of
a 50%–25%–25% percent ratio, respectively. Experimental
results are evaluated using the Symmetric Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (SMAPE) [11].
Table 1 presents results for the UA-VTFF approach using
diferent ML techniques. More specifically, LSTM, MLP,
XgBoost, ARIMA and Prophet are employed. Also, Table
2 presents results for the UA-VTFF approach, the indirect
and direct VTFF strategies presented in [11].</p>
        <p>
          The results presented in Table 1 confirm that the
LSTMbased UA-VTFF method can accurately capture the
vessel trafic flow in short-term to assist in efective
collision avoidance. This is due to the fact that LSTM have
emerged as an efective technique for several dificult
learning problems [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ] and have demonstrated
significant performance on predicting sequential problems [36].
        </p>
        <p>Also, our proposed UA-VTFF approach (using LSTM or
XgBoost) outperforms the indirect and direct VTFF
strategies as summarized in Table 2.</p>
        <p>In order to investigate further the performance of the
proposed UA-VTFF, we also present results in the two
highest trafic grid cells. Particularly, figs 4a and 4b depict
the prediction performance of the direct VTFF strategy
[11] and the XgBoost-based UA-VTFF algorithm,
respectively in the grid cell with id #19837. Also, figs 5a and
5b depict the prediction performance of the direct VTFF
strategy [11] and the XgBoost-based UA-VTFF algorithm,
respectively in the grid cell with id #19653. More
specifically, the figures illustrate the original and predicted
trafic flow in the training and testing sets. The figure
for the training graphic corresponds to the number of
vessels for the first 75% of the 5 min time frames(first
7000 time frames), while the testing graphic corresponds
to the number of vessels for the last 25% of the 5
minutes time frames(last 1600 time frames). Finally, we have
included the performance of each method on the last
six observations of the dataset corresponding to the last
30 minutes. Based on figs 4b, 4a, 5b and 5a we can
observe that UA-VTFF has less overfitting in the training
data compared to the direct VTFF [11], since in the
latter method the training graphic seems to have a much
better performance than the testing one. Finally, the
XgBoost-based UA-VTFF method performs better in the
scoring dataset than the direct VTFF [11], which also
uses XgBoost models.</p>
        <p>Finally, we should mention that the proposed VRF
method manages to predict a vessel trajectory composed
of 6 transitions with a latency of about 0.5secs on average.</p>
        <p>On the other hand, the VRF method used in the indirect
VTFF [11] predicts 6 transitions with a latency of about
2.5 secs on average.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>6. Conclusion</title>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>An efective method for vessel future trafic flow pre</title>
        <p>diction, in terms of accuracy and execution times, can
provide the fundamental basis for managing safety and
(a)
(a)</p>
        <p>(b)
Figure 5: Prediction performance in training and testing sets
for grid cell id 19653 of the: (a) XgBoost-based direct VTFF
[11], and (b) XgBoost-based UA-VTFF.
assisting efective collision avoidance at sea. In order to
tackle the VTFF problem, in this paper we build upon
previous work, which investigated two diferent VTFF
strategies. Particularly, we take advantage of both the
strategies by combining them, we enhance the feature
vector analysis, we propose a VRF method that is able
to predict the desired vessel trajectory in one execution,
and we employ a longer prediction time horizon (up to
30 min.) in finer granularity (of resolution 2km x 2km).
Through our experimental study of a real AIS dataset it
is obvious that the proposed UA-VTFF method can
eficiently forecast the trafic flow in terms of high accuracy.
Future work includes the investigation of: a) weather
impact on vessel trafic flow, b) tensor factorization analysis,
and c) extreme trafic events to fine-tune the model.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgments</title>
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        <title>This work was supported by EU Horizon 2020 Programme VesselAI (Grant No 957237) and MASTER (Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant No 777695).</title>
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