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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>How assessment analytics can help to improve reliability, efficiency, and fairness of entrance examinations</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Mika Nissinen</string-name>
          <email>mika.nissinen@uef.fi</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Elisa Silvennoinen</string-name>
          <email>elisa.silvennoinen@uef.fi</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Mohammed Saqr</string-name>
          <email>mohammed.saqr@uef.fi</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Faculty of Science and Forestry, School of Computing, University of Eastern Finland</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Joensuu</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="FI">Finland</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Faculty of Social Sciences and Business Studies, Law School, University of Eastern Finland</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Joensuu</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="FI">Finland</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>The study examined the level of difficulty, discrimination, and reliability of multiple-choice questions [MCQs] in Finnish national Law entrance examinations. The purpose was to assess whether MCQs could be used to rank applicants in a sufficiently reliable manner. The data set consists of anonymized scores from three exams (years 2018, 2019, 2021) containing 11,201 applicants all together. The study found that the MCQs provide a reliable, adequate, and high-quality discrimination. MCQ scores were also shown to correlate with essays and total scores.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>1 Assessment analytics</kwd>
        <kwd>entrance examine</kwd>
        <kwd>multiple choice question</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        Multiple-choice questions (MCQs) are a standard assessment modality across the full gamut of
education disciplines. Their efficiency and the reliability have helped make MCQs almost ubiquitous
in high and low stakes exams as well as formative and summative assessments. Besides, MCQs have
an overall good correlation with the examined competences with a robust evidence that they measure
the performance they are assumed to measure [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2 ref3 ref4">1, 2, 3, 4</xref>
        ]. MCQs are easy to administer, grading can
be automated with barely any mistakes with the modern machines and on computers. Such features
enable educators to assess a large number of students with the advantage of fast accurate grading
with minimal human intervention [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref5">1, 5</xref>
        ]. The benefits of MCQs include objective and unbiased
grading, near-immediate results due to automation, and low cost. Handwriting speed does not affect
the pace of answering the questions. MCQs enable a larger number of questions that can potentially
better cover the study material. MCQs are particularly well suited for evaluating learners’ starting
levels [see for example 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11].
      </p>
      <p>
        The benefits of essays may have been cited as potentially better evaluation of higher-order
cognitive skills, more realistic account of real-life problems where different answers may be “correct”
from different perspectives, and less room for guesswork [see for example 12, 13, 14, 15, 16]. A
possible approach to compare essays and MCQs is to compare the results of testing the same content
within the same context. Some studies have suggested that learners adapt their study methods by the
type of questions they expect, and thus the cognitive depth of learning. Yet, other studies have
suggested that MCQs facilitate more successful learning strategies [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Despite the many advantages MCQs offer to educators, reliable MCQs are challenging to construct
as well as take a considerable time to author and review [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref18 ref19 ref4">1, 4, 18, 19</xref>
        ]. The optimum MCQ requires
item authors to follow certain guidelines, have hands-on training and fine tune their skills [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
        ]. The
authored MCQs are typically reviewed for language, scientific content and alignment with course
objective [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref20">2, 20</xref>
        ]. Following the examination, a review of item performance is often performed to
assess the psychometric properties of questions and assess which ones fared below the expected level
of quality [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21 ref22 ref3 ref4">3, 4, 21, 22</xref>
        ]. Therefore, the reliability of MCQs is reliant on good practices, and exam
construction [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Learning analytics has emerged over a decade ago to use digital data to understand learning,
learners and the environment in which learning occurs. Even though learning analytics have
essentially covered all aspects of education, research on assessment continues to lag behind [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23 ref24">23, 24</xref>
        ].
One reason may be the perception that assessment is always regarded as an outcome that we must
optimize: we put much effort to improve students’ grades, rather than improve the way we score
students’ exams. In this study, we use analytical techniques along with the common psychometric
methods to research assessment.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>1.2 Motivation of the study</title>
      <p>Entrance examination should rank the applicants reliably, fairly, and efficiently. Organizing the exam
should not be exhaustive to universities and teachers, neither should taking the exam burden the
applicants. This study is aimed at investigating the benefits and drawbacks of using MCQs in Finnish
Law entrance examinations.</p>
      <p>
        The study uses the assessments of three years of Finnish law schools’ entrance exam, and apply
analytics methods to examine the reliability of the exams, compare different exam modalities and try
to answer whether MCQs are reliable, and most importantly, whether essays are needed [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23 ref24">23, 24</xref>
        ]. The
results will be useful for evaluating the aims, quality, and fairness of entrance examinations as well
as its challenges and how it can be improved. If the functionality of the multiple-choice questions in
the entrance exams can be demonstrated, the multiple-choice questions can also be utilized effectively
in the university education.
      </p>
      <p>This study aims to analyzes the psychometric properties of Finnish exams regarding difficulty,
discrimination, and reliability. The overarching research question is how good and reliable are the
MCQs and to what extent can they alone determine the student acceptance to law school? The
following sub-questions were investigated:
1) how well do MCQs perform in assessing applicants?
2) how reliable are the MCQ -questions?
3) how does an applicant’s MCQ score predict the overall score in the exam?</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>2. Materials and Methods</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>2.1 Context</title>
      <p>In 2018 Finnish universities introduced multiple choice questions (MCQs) systematically in Law
entrance examinations. Before that, the examinations used mostly essay questions. Entrance
examination is the primary mode of entry to Law studies: 60% of entrants are drawn from entrance
examinations, which consist of two parts: MCQs and essays. The grading is norm-referenced: Each
applicant is compared to each other applicant, with the aim to rank-order the applicants. Grading is
divided to two stages: First, applicants are ranked by their MCQ scores, automatically checked. The
number of essays graded manually in the second stage is roughly thrice the annual intake.</p>
      <p>
        As one of the most popular subjects of study, Law entrance examinations attract roughly 4000
applicants each year, with low acceptance rates [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref25">25</xref>
        ]. For example, in 2021, 341 applicants were
selected by the entrance exam, which is about 10 percent of the participants in the entrance exam
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref26">26</xref>
        ]. Preparing for the examinations is a massive undertaking for the applicants, as well as the Finnish
faculties of Law, who prepare study material, examination questions, and grading rubrics. Each year
the student selection leads to hundreds of appeals, first to faculties of Law and some of them to
administrative courts, which burdens the universities involved.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>2.2 Materials</title>
      <p>The data set consists of anonymized scores from the Finnish national Law entrance examinations
from the years 2018, 2019, and 2021. Results from the year 2020 were excluded due to an
incommensurable exam set-up following the COVID-19 situation that year. The study included data
for 11,201 applicants (2018 n= 4090, 2019 n= 3876, 2021 n=3235).</p>
      <p>The study does not analyze the difficulty or discrimination of essay questions, because the essays
are graded only for the top ≈40% of applicants. In addition, essay scores could not be easily compared
with MCQ scores, because the number of essay questions is just four.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>2.3 Methods</title>
      <p>The analysis was carried out using item analysis as well as analytics of exams and students’
performance. Item analysis is a well-established toolset for evaluation of the MCQs and exams in
general. The analysis aimed at evaluation of the individual items, their difficulty, discriminating
power of upper and lower achievers and the reliability of the exam. The main purpose of the entrance
exam is to rank the candidates i.e., to distinguish between the good and the weak results effectively
[See for example 7, 27, 28]. The Difficulty level, the discrimination index (DI), and the RIT index (item
total correlation) were calculated for both, the individual MCQs and the total MCQ. In addition, an
alpha drop value was calculated for each individual question. Alpha drop value for an individual MCQ
indicates the residual reliability of all the MCQs if this individual MCQ was removed. Deleting a single
question would not affect the reliability of the complete MCQ exam.</p>
      <p>
        Difficulty level refers to the proportion of applicants who answered the question correctly. The
value for difficulty level ranges from 0 to 1. The lower the level, the more difficult an individual
question has been. A commonly used classification for difficulty level is: ≤0.50: hard; 0.51-0.84:
moderate; &gt;0.85: easy. Moderate questions are most appropriate. Too hard question may discriminate
better between the high achievers (score distribution is skewed to the left) and too easy question
between the low achievers (score distribution is skewed to the right) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29 ref30">29, 30</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Discrimination index indicates how well the question discriminates between high and low
achieving applicants. The method used was the upper-lower index, which calculates the difference of
the ratio of correct answers between the top and lower thirds (33%) of student exam. An item is
considered discriminatory if its Discrimination index (DI) for the correct answer is positive (the value
can be between +1 and -1). A negative value indicates a non-functioning item. The higher the value,
the better the question discriminates. If the discrimination index is very low (or negative), the
question cannot be considered discriminatory, as both successful and less successful candidates in the
exam have answered the question.</p>
      <p>
        The RIT (item total correlation) index indicates the correlation between an individual question
and the entire entrance exam. The correlation ranges between +1 and -1; the higher the positive
correlation, the better. This is directly related to the reliability. When a greater number of questions
have a high RIT index, then also the reliability for the test is higher. The distinctiveness can be
assessed on the basis of the RIT index [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref30">30</xref>
        ]: &lt;0.10: bad question that may need to be improved or
removed; 0.10-0.19: weak question that should be improved; 0.20-0.29: acceptable, which can be
improved; ≥0.30: Good.
      </p>
      <p>The reliability estimate was also calculated for the entrance exam. Reliability refers to the
consistency of measurements. Measurement results are considered reliable if they are stable and
consistent between measurements. Reliable results are accurate, reproducible, and generalizable to
other tests and similar metrics. The reliability means that the exam under similar conditions but in a
different situation (= second entrance exam) leads to substantially same result. The reliability estimate
was calculated using the split-half method, i.e., the questions were divided into two halves and the
Cronbach's alpha factor was calculated for each. The process was repeated 10,000 times and results
were averaged. The following classification can be used for reliability: ≤0.50: questionable reliability,
test to be checked; 0.50-0.60: test revision recommendation; 0.60-0.70: somewhat low; 0.70–0.80 good;
0.80-0.90: Very good; &lt;0.90: Excellent reliability [30, reliability, and Cronbach’s alpha, see also for
example 31, 32, 33, 34].</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>3. Results</title>
      <p>For multiple choice questions (MCQ), the reliability estimate, difficulty level, and discrimination index
were calculated. For the essay questions, these were not calculated, as only four of them per year is
too few for reliable measurement results. In 2018 the mean reliability estimate for MCQs (n = 40) was
0.91 and in 2019 it was 0.94, while in 2021, the reliability was 0.88. The limit for excellent reliability
is 90, which was exceeded in 2018 and 2019. The slightly lower reliability in 2021 maybe due to the
fact that the MCQ exam questions were only 30. The mean item difficulty (P) values indicate
moderate MCQs. The difficulty level in each exam (0.74 in 2018; 0.73 in 2019; 0.56 in 2021), is at the
upper limit of moderate difficulty, which can be considered good. The higher the difficulty level, the
easier the questions. The mean item discrimination index per each exam is positive, and the values
show that the MCQs were discriminating (2018 0.34; 2019 0.43; 2021 0.42). A summary of means for
reliability, difficulty and discrimination can be found in Table 1.</p>
      <p>Figure 1 shows the item difficulty and discrimination values of all individual MCQs in the 2018
(n=40), 2019 (n=40) and 2021 (n=30) entrance exams. In Fig. 1 red bars indicate the difficulty values
and blue bars the discrimination values. The questions are ranked by the difficulty value. The first is
the most difficult question and the last is the easiest question.</p>
      <p>Figure 1 shows that MCQs have been balanced in terms of difficulty and discrimination. The 2021
exam contained a greater number of difficult items than the 2018 and 2019 exams did. However, there
were not any very difficult (P≤0.20) items in any of the three exams. The 2018 and 2019 exams
contained some easy (P&gt;0.85) items which almost all applicants were able to answer correctly.</p>
      <p>The DI describes the difference between the best one-third and the weakest one-third. The value
obtained from all questions were more than 0, and therefore, none of the questions were
dysfunctional.</p>
      <p>RIT index describes the discrimination of a single question in more detail than DI does. RIT index
for nearly all the MCQs (n=110) is greater or equal than 0.30. This means either good or very good
resolution. Only three MCQs has a RIT index less than 0.30, which is excellent result. A high index
number indicates a strong positive correlation between the question and the total score in MCQs.</p>
      <p>The reliability coefficient (Cronbach’s alpha) for 2018 MCQs was 0.91, CI [0.9099–0.9101] and for
2019 MCQs was 0.94, CI [0.9399–0.9401]. These mean excellent reliability: that is, the MCQs in all
exams measure the same thing and the candidates who answered a question correctly are likely to
have answered the other questions correctly. In 2021, the reliability was slightly lower 0.88, CI [0.87–
0.88].</p>
      <p>Alpha drop for individual questions was between 0.90 and 0.91 (2018), 0.93 (2019) and between 0.87
and 0.88 (2021).</p>
      <p>In addition to the psychometric properties the analysis shows how well does an applicant’s MCQ
score predict the overall score (MCQs and essays) in the exam. In this analysis only the number of
admitted applicants and the minimum accepted scores were considered. The minimum accepted
scores for admittance were 57 (2018), 55 (2019) and 42 (2021). The applicants were divided into
accepted (“In”) and rejected (“Out”). The original division between In and Out was based on the overall
scores (MCQs and essays). However, for this analysis the Ins and the Outs were determined only by
the MCQ scores. The main reason was to test how possible that an applicant gets selected based only
on MCQ results. Figures 2 shows a multiway contingency plot, in which blue color represent a
positive association and the size of the tile represent the magnitude. The chart shows the association
between those who scored high in MCQs (MCQIn) and the entire entrance exam (ExamIn). Blue color
describes applicants whose admittance status would not have changed had the selection been made
by the total MCQ scores or the overall exam score (MCQs and essay). The top blue section shows
applicants who scored high on both MCQs and the entire entrance exam and would thus be selected
on the basis of both scores (MCQIn / ExamIn). The top red section describes applicants who received
low scores on MCQs but high scores on the entire exam, i.e., performed better on essay questions.
The lowest red section describes applicants who were successful in MCQs but less so in essay
questions and were not selected on overall scores. The large lowest blue proportion describes
applicants who received low scores from both MCQs and the complete exam and were not admitted.
Figure 2 shows that applicants with high scores on MCQs are also highly likely to succeed in the
entire entrance exam and therefore, high scores in MCQs predicts very well the overall score and
eventually the admission. The analysis also calculated the odds ratio for those selected on the basis
of MCQs and among the top in the complete entrance exam, which indicates association between the
two factors. The odds ratio calculates the probability of being admitted divided by the probability of
not being admitted. The ratio includes the probability of both admission and rejection. In 2019, the
odds ratio was 49, in 2018 it was 53, and in 2021 the odds ratio was the highest 98.48.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>4. Discussion</title>
      <p>The results show that in 2018, 2019 and 2021 MCQs were able to divide high and low achievers reliably
and consistently over the years. The analysis shows that MCQs are sufficient for student selection,
and essays did not bring additional value that would significantly change the results, and therefore,
the results do not support suggestions that MCQs and essays would measure very different sets of
competences—or at least that there would be a significant number of students who would excel in
one but not the other. Taken together, it seems that MCQs are far more reliable, consistent and offer
a fair opportunity for every student to be graded the same way, free from human subjectivity (since
essays are manually graded) as well as have extremely low potential for making grading mistakes.
Therefore, we conclude that in order to offer applicants a fair equal opportunity, MCQs seems to be
the exam modality of choice.</p>
      <p>Taken together, the results of this study offers a proof of concept of how analytics results can
possibly help offer a fair opportunity to applicants. Proving that objective types of examinations are
reliable, reproducible and more differentiating paves the way for future adoption of such more reliable
methods of assessments.</p>
      <p>The results suggest that there is room for increasing the weight given to MCQs in the Finnish
national Law entrance examinations. In addition to the psychometric results that support their use,
increasing their share is supported by four arguments.</p>
      <p>Firstly, the entrance examination is not aimed at evaluating expertise, but it is aimed at evaluating
the potential and capacity of applicants for completing a LLB/LLM (Bachelor / Master of Laws)
degree. The exam is not used to grade applicants but to divide them into two groups (accept/reject)
using fair and objective criteria. The exam is expected to evaluate, in a very restricted time slot, a
wide range of the applicants’ abilities, which purpose is served by a well-designed, large set of MCQs.</p>
      <p>Secondly, MCQ grading can be automated, which speeds up the process and release of results. The
fewer essays there are to grade, the less faculties of Law have to reserve time to labor-intensive
manual assessment. Should the entrance examination be administered fully online, automation could
be used even more effectively. An online MCQ exam avoids several issues with paper-based MCQs,
such as unclear markings, erased and re-written tick marks, scanning paper sheets, and errors in
manual transfer of data.</p>
      <p>Thirdly, MCQ scoring is objective. Applicant selects the correct answer from a set of pre-set
answers. Scoring essays, on the contrary, requires interpretation of the applicant’s intention
compared to a pre-set sample answer. Several graders evaluate more than a thousand heterogeneous
essays, which necessarily introduces some subjective elements in the process.</p>
      <p>Fourthly, less ambiguity, more transparent, and objective MCQs ensure equal treatment of
applicants and the rights of the individual applicant. This can lead to much fewer appeals [see also
35]. Table 2 shows appeals in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Rows present the years, and columns present exam
questions (MCQs are grouped in groups of ten, each representing one topic in the study material).
The last column (others) refers to appeals that were not about any specific question.</p>
      <p>As can be seen from the table, the very large number of appeals related to essay questions, as
compared to MCQs This indicates that applicants experienced especially essays to be incorrect or
unfair. Appeals generate massive amount of extra effort for applicants, faculties of Law, and possible
even courts (if the appeal continues there). Due to the heterogeneity of essay answers, appeals related
to essays are more time consuming than appeals related to MCQs. Increasing the share of MCQs in
the exam would benefit all the parties due to improved trust in the objectivity and fairness of the
process, and due to decreased number of appeals.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-9">
      <title>5. Conclusions</title>
      <p>The analysis of more than ten thousand applicants has emphasized that the MCQs offer an objective,
reliable and differentiating type of assessment. Adopting MCQs for entry exams has the potential for
offering a fair opportunity for future applicants with less subjectivity.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-10">
      <title>Acknowledgements References</title>
      <p>The authors wish to thank Professor Matti Tedre for commenting the manuscript. The authors also
wish to thank exam coordinator Kirsi Kaljunen for helping with the data collection.
[31] Tavakol, M., Dennick, R., (2011), Post-examination analysis of objective tests, Medical Teacher,</p>
      <p>Vol. No. 6, 447-458.
[32] Bacon, D. R. (2003), Assessing Learning Outcomes: A Comparison of Multiple-Choice and
ShortAnswer Questions in a Marketing Context. Journal of Marketing Education, Vol. 25 No. 1, 31–
36.
[33] Cho, E. (2016), Making Reliability Reliable: A Systematic Approach to Reliability Coefficients,</p>
      <p>Organizational Research Methods, Vol. 19 No. 4, 651–682.
[34] Cronbach L. J. (1951), Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests, Psychometrika, Vol.</p>
      <p>16 No. 3, 297–334.
[35] Tozoglu, D., Tozoglu, M. D., Gurses, A., Dogar, C. (2004), The students' perceptions: essay versus
multiple-choice type exams, Journal of Baltic Science Education, Vol. 3 No. 2, 52–59.</p>
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