This paper investigates the flexibility of organizations for the strategic development of agricultural business projects. The suggested рrobit model provides organizations to evaluate and forecast the development of new agricultural business projects based on modeling the flexible business practice. The probit model also informs the investors and partners about the alleged success of projects based on flexibility or the ability to ensure their stable financial condition. The research is founded on the following methods: a systematic and deductive approach to the study of strategic development of agricultural business projects and systematization of factors that affects the flexibility of organizations; regression analysis to disclose the details of creating the probit model of the influence of factors on the flexibility of organizations. A рrobit model method is proposed in which the flexibility of organizations is defined as a correlation of the factors. A probit model affirms that the level and quality of innovative solutions, staff expertise, and net income per employee are important markers that reflect the organization's flexibility. On the basis of the рrobit model, leaders will have a chance to select flexibility and successful agricultural business projects.
In the face of increasing global competition and globalization processes, modern organizations are forced to meet the requirements of innovation, adaptability, and responsiveness to the latest challenges. The ability to restructure one's own business, organizational structure, and operational or production processes in a short time is a consequence of this situation. This situation requires organizations to make instant management decisions, which are due to appropriate information support.
The economic crisis in Ukraine, caused by hostilities in the country and the COVID-19 pandemic, has created unusual problems for businesses. This has led to increased risks for organizations. Scientists and practitioners who have previously tried to anticipate such threats have considered them locally, within individual countries.
implementation of innovations, and changes) to permanent ones. Flexibility and adaptability are becoming a system and culture of business management. Choosing the right business development management model can be a starting point for survival and growth.
changes -in organization structure and management model. At the same time, the main parameters of business development should remain within acceptable limits. Also, organizations must be able to quickly adjust the production of goods and services, taking into account the parameters specified by the customer. Reconfiguration costs should not lead to significant changes in business results.
The dynamic component of development allows organizations to reproduce and build capacity, and adapt to global and domestic transformations. Innovation and adaptability are the foundation for successful business development management and strategic development of agricultural business projects.
It is important not only to make products but also to turn an idea into a working project. Agricultural business projects take into account the value of the product or service, consumer segment, sales channels, customer interaction, identified key activities, resources, and partners. The most important issue is the creation of agricultural business projects by professionals, and innovators seeking to realize their potential. It is important in this process to strictly follow the principles of doing business, taking into account the operation of basic economic laws, the presence of a new idea, and the staff team.
Innovation-technological and personnel factors are important for Ukrainian organizations. These factors consist of a certain group of subordinates. An important result of a business is its flexibility. The approach to the assessment of flexibility is based on the use of the following important factors: - level and quality of adopted innovative decisions (as an element of innovation and technological factor), - staff expertise (as an element of the personnel factor), - net income per employee (the ratio of profit or loss from sales to staff) as an indicator that characterizes the financial and economic condition of business development.
agricultural business projects based on modeling the flexible business practice.
researchers, which demonstrate the issues of the flexibility of organizations, and strategic development of new agricultural business projects.
The research is founded on the following methods: a systematic and deductive approach to the study of strategic development of agricultural business projects and systematization of factors that affects the flexibility of organizations; regression analysis to disclose the details of creating the probit model of the influence of factors on the flexibility of organizations.
business resources with strategic flexibility with the help proposed by the author of the tools of the knowledge management process. He suggests that business resources are positively and significantly related to flexibility, and knowledge management process capability is involved in revealed relationships.
to increased organizational effectiveness. Flexibility is а decisive importance because it allows organizations to better adjust to new changes in the consumer market.
Nowak [
on the financial products, clients, agricultural environment, and financial institutions. The results showed that there was a considerable and positive relationship between factors influencing financial issues of business and the successful development of rural agricultural projects.
Wauton, Odinwa, and Ekeogu [
Our article took into account the concepts of scientists who highlight the significance of the influence of factors (level and quality of innovative solutions, staff expertise, net income per employee) on the flexibility of the organization.
The methodology of research of the problem is based on the use of the tool of economic and mathematical modeling (probit-regression analysis). The calculations were performed using the statistical analysis package STATISTICA.
on the involvement of 62 national experts who are actively working or have worked in the agricultural industry. All indicators that characterize the quality of the study meet the regulations (coefficients of competence are within [0.57; 0.80], and the concordance coefficient is 0.70).
The level and quality of innovative decisions and staff expertise were determined by checking between 0 and 10 (maximum 10). The flexibility of organizations was defined as 0 (lack of flexibility) or 1 (flexible business). Quantitative data (profit or loss from sales to staff) on the financial activities of the business were obtained from surveys. These data can be used to calculate net income per employee.
of innovative per employee expertise (x2) of organizations solutions (x1) (x3) (y) Staff №
Land Fund 22,498 -36,672 4,004 4 5 5 5 3
Probit-regression model allows for determining the group of flexibility in the agricultural industry organizations. Probit-regression model provides an opportunity to study the probability that the business will be assigned to a particular group of flexibility. This makes the probit regression tool unique for assessing business flexibility.
p(х) = P(Y = 1| X = х) = Ф(хTb), (1) ( ) =
1 √2
2
∫ − 2 ,
−∞
unknown parameters that should be estimated [
∗ ( ; ) = ln( ( ; )) → max
[
Now, the next action is that we get a binary independent variable thanks to the probit model. That's why we point out the probability of appearance of 1 ( = Prob( = 1)) by . This probability will depend on where , is the row of the regressors' matrix, is the vector of regression coefficients = ( ), ( ) =
1 √2 ∫−∞ − 2 2
( , ) = ∏ =1 ( ) [ − ( )]1−
changed, but we have simplified the work and avoided multiplication [
= ln( ) + ( − )ln( − ( ))
W = (W0, W1,…,Wm)T,
Xi = (1, Xi1,…,Xim),
XiW = W0 + W1Xi1 + W2Xi1 +…+ WmXim
We used an approach called the Newton-Raphson method to maximize the . The iteration method
was used to solve the problem [
= industry: 1).
= = ( = ∑ ( )( − ( )) , …
∑ ( )( − ( )) , ∑ ( )( − ( )) 1, … … … ∑ ( )( − ( )) 1, … ∑ ( )( − ( )) ,
∑ ( )( − ( )) … …
= = =
The following indicators were used to assess the flexibility of organizations in the agricultural x1 – level and quality of innovative solutions, x2 – staff expertise, x3 – net income per employee.
The parameters of the obtained probit model in the STATISTICA environment are as follows (figure +1 = − ln ( ) [∂2∂ln ∂( ′ )]−1
ln ( )
= ( 0( ), 1( ), … , ( )) 0( ) = ∑ =1 ( ) − ∑
{ : =1} 1 ( ) = ∑ = (
) − ∑ { : =1} , = 1,2, … ,
(st) = ( )−1 It was significant that the final stage of the research is an activation of the conjugate gradient method. (8) (9) (10)
) (11) confirmed by the calculated value of the chi-square (χ²-distribution), which is equal to 58.2 and almost zero probability not to reject the null hypothesis.
( = 1| ) = (40 − 2,3 1 − 3,5 2 − 0,009 3) (12)
the factors described above.
Figure 2 shows the dependence of the studied indicator of the flexibility in terms of changing the factor x3 (net income per employee) for certain values of the factor x1 (level and quality of innovative solutions) and the fixed value of the factor x2 (x2 = 6). That is, the growth of net income per employee for different values of the level and quality of innovative solutions and fixed values of staff expertise leads to an increase the flexibility of organizations.
1 y lit 0.8 i b i ex0.6 l f sse0.4 n i su0.2 B 0
x1=9 x1=8 x1=7 e v i t a v o n n i fo sn lty liuo i t aqu so d n a l e v e L x3=-10 x3=0
x3=10
Net income per employee
attractive financial result of the business, and outlines the success of its operation, the efficiency of production processes, and the situation with productivity. The business must be profitable, operate successfully, increase its value, and bring income to its owners and employees.
profitability is one of the most important indicators that characterize the financial and economic condition of the business and sets the purpose of its activities.
Managers can more effectively manage a business, create a management model and development strategy, determine the optimal course of action, and increase profits by analyzing profitability. This provides information on when the business will start to make a profit, when the business will repay the loans, and what investments will bring measurable financial benefits. High profitability will increase the value of the business. With the correct application of profitability analysis, it is possible to effectively correct management errors, choose an effective investment and innovation strategy for the development of new agricultubased onral business projects and increase revenue.
this ratio that would reflect different levels of profitability. Therefore, the results should be interpreted on the basis of changes in the indicator over time. As the level of net income increases, financial security, business development opportunities and adaptation to dynamic environmental conditions increase. Growth also means that a business has a competitive advantage due to a specific product, a patented technology or a unique brand.
business, efficiency and effectiveness of organizations [
Business is forced to form a structure of financial resources that will increase the efficiency of
financial and economic activities, financial stability, solvency and minimize possible financial risks. In
modern conditions in the process of forming the financial resources of the business increases the
importance of profitability, profit, depreciation and borrowed funds [
Figure 3 shows the dependence of the studied indicator when changing the factor x1 (level and quality of innovative solutions) for certain values of the factor x2 (staff expertise) and the fixed value of the factor x3 (x3 = 0). That is, increasing the level and quality of innovative solutions for different values of staff expertise and fixed values of net income per employee leads to increase the flexibility of organizations.
ty 1 i ilb0.8 i lex0.6 f ss0.4 e isn0.2 u B 0 x1=6 x1=7 x1=8
x1=9 Level and quality of innovative solutions x2=6 x2=8 e s i t r e p x e f f a t S
Researchers who adhere to the institutional concept of economic growth [
innovation in the business process. Innovation management aims to develop business through the introduction of changes, new management practices, improvement of processes or structures in breakthrough areas of business. Firstly, it depends on the innovative thinking of managers, their ability to produce and implement new solutions to implement the new agricultural business projects.
Management innovations have a significant impact on the flexibility, adaptability, efficiency, competitiveness of the business: unexpectedness, uncertainty of the result (most innovative management decisions are difficult to predict and test in advance, and after implementation errors can be too significant and fatal for organizations); creativity as the basis of innovative management decisions (manager must have the appropriate competencies, intelligence, skills, form and implement effective solutions); clash of operational and innovative goals and objectives to synchronize the implementation of operational and strategic business development; the cost of working time and the cost of agricultural business projects are too high, and the economic effect will be stretched over time, the costs and consequences of innovation are unevenly distributed in time, the payback period of implemented management innovation solutions is long; the existence of a sufficient number of obstacles in the implementation of management decisions and changes, due to the creation of conflicts of interest in the process of managing business development.
Management of agricultural business projects needs to consider certain conditions to increase the effectiveness of innovative solutions:
- managers must support innovation for success of organizations in the market and strive for progress, encourage creative and active employees;
- managers should contribute to the creation of a climate of organizational culture that encourages innovation and change;
- managers should be open to suggestions for technical and technological improvements, break stereotypes; - managers must cultivate the creativity of employees, get rid of conservatives and passive people.
restructuring of their economic activities on the basis of the latest management paradigm. This paradigm requires the implementation of new technologies in business, prompt and preventive response to the transformation of business conditions. The high level of turbulence in the market environment encourages business to develop competitive advantages, to form innovative management decisions. This is due to the fact that traditional management tools do not provide the ability of business to adapt to new market conditions [11, с. 3].
Figure 4 shows the dependence of the studied indicator when changing the factor x2 (staff expertise) for certain values of the factor x3 (net income per employee) and the fixed value of the factor x1 (x1 = 5). That is, increasing the level of staff expertise for different values of net income per employee and fixed values of the level and quality of innovative solutions leads to increase the flexibility of organizations.
1 y t ili 0.8 b i lex0.6 f ss0.4 e n isu0.2 B 0 x2=7
x2=8 Staff expertise x2=9
x3=10
organizations. Businesses need to make sure that staff have the necessary opportunities to increase
efficiency of organizations. Personnel development management is one of the main concepts of
personnel management. Management based on staff expertise takes into account educational
competencies, skills, potential, as well as behavior that affects staff skills [
system. The marketing department should have information about customers and business activities. This allows you to look for new solutions and agricultural business projects, to achieve a common goal.
the needs of employees so that investment in staff does not become a loss for the business. To do this, it is necessary to conduct an analysis, taking into account the knowledge and skills of employees, expectations for further development. Any form of employee competence development should be closely linked to business strategy and have an impact on the development of flexibility. Investments in the employee form in him a sense of stability of work, a sense of need for skills and experience.
believe that changing the system of employee education is important or very important for
organizations. 5% of respondents stated that their company is fully or partially ready for this. 53% of
women and 58% of men say that their immediate supervisor is aware of their professional ambitions
[
employee. An employee can improve their competencies and develop many skills, increase self-esteem.
Employee training and development is directly embodied in business success [
( 1 = 1) = (40 − 2,3 ∙ 5 − 3,5 ∙ 9 − 0,009 ∙ 5) = 0,999 ( 2 = 1) = (40 − 2,3 ∙ 7 − 3,5 ∙ 7 − 0,009 ∙ 30) = 0,85 ( 3 = 1) = (40 − 2,3 ∙ 5 − 3,5 ∙ 8 − 0,009 ∙ 20) = 0,44
organization and to consistently link factors influencing flexibility is essential. It has also been found that the assessment of the flexibility of organizations gives a new insight into behavior of projects.
An examination of the concept of flexibility has been done, showing the attendance of both negative and positive sides of factors and flexibility of organizations. 6. Referenses